15 Elmwood Ave · Batavia, NY 14020

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 932 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1946 8,400 sqft lot Est $169k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2 bedroom ranch located on a quiet and well kept street. Enclosed sun porch at front of house and also one at back of house. Living room is open to dining space and kitchen. Master bedroom is located at back of house and has its own full bath with shower. 2nd bedroom is located at front of house and is quiet spacious. There is a full dry basement with cedar closet. Detached garage with man door. This home is in good condition. With a few updates it could really shine and be perfect.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Single-level layout
• Enclosed sun porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUN PORCH
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• SINGLE-LEVEL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Wood siding
• Construction: Built previously (existing); Block and poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular lot with 56 x 150 dimensions; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-58/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (0.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.5% in Batavia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#536 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Batavia City School District (town): math 38% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #477 of 590 in NY (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $160k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $186/mo; built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.85%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,692
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 Osterhout Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,020 (+9%)	5mo	$185,000	$181	59
6 Law St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,005 (+8%)	8mo	$200,000	$199	54
29 Williams St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+6%)	13mo	$189,000	$192	50
46 Ganson Ave	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,032 (+11%)	21mo	$155,000	$150	49
28 Williams St	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,044 (+12%)	8mo	$155,000	$148	44
109 Watson St	0.51mi	2/1.0	862 (-8%)	24mo	$20,000	$23	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,081
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,542
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14020

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,417/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$186 /mo · $2,232/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,636

Max offer price $159,040

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Main St Unit 2 Batavia, NY	2.0	2.0	950	$2,100	$2.21	2d	1	0.71mi
105 Main St Unit 1 Batavia, NY	1.0	1.0	790	$2,100	$2.66	2d	1	0.71mi
224 State St Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	2d	1	1.38mi
10 Woodstock Gdns Unit 10 Batavia, NY	2.0	1.0	1007	$1,230	$1.22	2d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $159,900 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   listed $159,900 Active
8. 2022-06-22
   soldstatus $103,500 Closed Sale or Rented 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom ranch located on a quiet and well kept street. Enclosed sun porch at front of house and also one at back of house. Living room is open to dining space and kitchen. Master bedroom is located at back of house and has its own full bath with shower. 2nd bedroom is located at front of house and is quiet spacious. There is a full dry basement with cedar closet. Detached garage with man door. This home is in good condition. With a few updates it could really shine and be perfect.

9. 2022-06-22
   soldstatus $103,500

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   Adorable 2 bedroom ranch located on a quiet and well kept street. Enclosed sun porch at front of house and also one at back of house. Living room is open to dining space and kitchen. Master bedroom is located at back of house and has its own full bath with shower. 2nd bedroom is located at front of house and is quiet spacious. There is a full dry basement with cedar closet. Detached garage with man door. This home is in good condition. With a few updates it could really shine and be perfect.

10. 2022-04-29
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Adorable 2 bedroom ranch located on a quiet and well kept street. Enclosed sun porch at front of house and also one at back of house. Living room is open to dining space and kitchen. Master bedroom is located at back of house and has its own full bath with shower. 2nd bedroom is located at front of house and is quiet spacious. There is a full dry basement with cedar closet. Detached garage with man door. This home is in good condition. With a few updates it could really shine and be perfect.

11. 2022-04-25
    listed $99,900 Active 496-char remark

    Show marketing remark (496 chars)

    Adorable 2 bedroom ranch located on a quiet and well kept street. Enclosed sun porch at front of house and also one at back of house. Living room is open to dining space and kitchen. Master bedroom is located at back of house and has its own full bath with shower. 2nd bedroom is located at front of house and is quiet spacious. There is a full dry basement with cedar closet. Detached garage with man door. This home is in good condition. With a few updates it could really shine and be perfect.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,417 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$142/yr (+$12/mo · 5.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AO · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,417
• − Insurance: −$3,031
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,565
• − Management: −$1,565
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$630
• After-tax cash flow: $572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Batavia City School District
• NCES district ID: 3603990
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,288
• Composite: 37.13/100
• National rank: #4490
• State rank: #477 of 590 in NY

Livability — Batavia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #536
• US rank: #9660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Batavia, NY
• County: Genesee County · 22,002 people
• City population: 22,002
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,002
• Household income: $62,655
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.58%
• Current HPI: 263.2147
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Batavia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+60.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2022-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $103,500 Public Records
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) $103,500 WNYREIS
• 2022-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2022-04-25 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,417 · -47.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.