38 Lafayette Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1947 5,227 sqft lot $495/sqft · 15% above area Est $536k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully renovated 3 Bedroom 2 full bathroom. Home designed with a sophisticated open-concept layout perfect for modern living and entertaining. This stunning residence features elegant finishes, a spacious living and dining area filled with natural light and a beautiful updated kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living space. Every detail has been thoughtfully upgraded to offer both comfort and style. Ready to move in.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 1947
• Listed 80 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $484k (3.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $365k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Shirley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John S Hobart Elementary School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,274 of 2,108 statewide, top 61%, 798 students, 58% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $320k; list at $499k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,365 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,829
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -6.87%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40 Fairview Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+4%)	2mo	$400,000	$381	80
31 Stanley Dr	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,092 (+8%)	1mo	$460,000	$421	80
94 Baybright Dr E	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,020 (+1%)	2mo	$545,000	$534	77
20 Bogota Rd	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,088 (+8%)	3mo	$460,000	$423	64
344 Elm Rd W	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,092 (+8%)	1mo	$415,000	$380	61
9 Pine Tree Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+2%)	1mo	$441,000	$430	58
56 Brushwood Dr	0.54mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,074 (+6%)	1mo	$360,000	$335	54
67 Lombardy Dr	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (+5%)	1mo	$422,500	$400	50
62 Moriches Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,095 (+9%)	1mo	$360,000	$329	50
77 Diana Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	4mo	$400,000	$364	46
231 Elm Rd W	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+9%)	2mo	$477,000	$434	44
55 Trafalgar Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	885 (-12%)	1mo	$300,000	$339	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-86,554
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-83,362
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,768/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$767
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,762

Max offer price $483,864

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $197	-5% $56	+0% $-86	+5% $-227	+10% $-368
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-230	+0% $-86	+5% $59	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $166	-0.5pp $41	base $-86	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-347

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	4d	1	0.23mi
12 Hackensack Rd Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	792	$3,150	$3.98	18d	1	0.33mi
67 Saint George Dr Shirley, NY	2.0	1.0	714	$2,750	$3.85	46d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $499,000 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-04-29
   price $499,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Fully renovated 3 Bedroom 2 full bathroom. Home designed with a sophisticated open-concept layout perfect for modern living and entertaining. This stunning residence features elegant finishes, a spacious living and dining area filled with natural light and a beautiful updated kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living space. Every detail has been thoughtfully upgraded to offer both comfort and style. Ready to move in.

3. 2026-03-12
   listed $539,000 Active 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Fully renovated 3 Bedroom 2 full bathroom. Home designed with a sophisticated open-concept layout perfect for modern living and entertaining. This stunning residence features elegant finishes, a spacious living and dining area filled with natural light and a beautiful updated kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living space. Every detail has been thoughtfully upgraded to offer both comfort and style. Ready to move in.

4. 2026-03-11
   historical $539,000 431-char remark

   Show marketing remark (431 chars)

   Fully renovated 3 Bedroom 2 full bathroom. Home designed with a sophisticated open-concept layout perfect for modern living and entertaining. This stunning residence features elegant finishes, a spacious living and dining area filled with natural light and a beautiful updated kitchen that flows seamlessly into the main living space. Every detail has been thoughtfully upgraded to offer both comfort and style. Ready to move in.

5. 2025-11-04
   soldstatus $320,000 Closed 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Do not miss this opportunity "Ready to move in" located on a excellent block & "NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED" 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms Washer & Dryer Included

6. 2025-10-21
   soldstatus $180,000
7. 2025-09-24
   status Pending 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Do not miss this opportunity "Ready to move in" located on a excellent block & "NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED" 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms Washer & Dryer Included

8. 2025-08-26
   listed $349,000 Active 194-char remark

   Show marketing remark (194 chars)

   Do not miss this opportunity "Ready to move in" located on a excellent block & "NO FLOOD INSURANCE REQUIRED" 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms Washer & Dryer Included

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,768 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,101 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,333/yr (+$278/mo · 188.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,844
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$1,768
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,508
• − Management: −$3,508
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$9,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,377
• After-tax cash flow: $1,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $499,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Listed $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Coming Soon $539,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Sold (MLS) $320,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2025-09-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-26 Listed $349,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,768 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.