1512 Buchanan St. St · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$22,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,304 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1900 4,487 sqft lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

Key facts

• 4,487 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 15 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• Recommended offer: $23k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 65.4% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sandusky Middle (math 29% / reading 52%, grade F, #303 of 342 statewide, top 89%, 568 students, 96% FRL); Heritage High (math 32% / reading 77%, grade C-, #281 of 319 statewide, top 90%, 1,073 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $158 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $687 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($23k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $22,556 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.07%
• DSCR: 10.39
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.17×
• Total profit: $65,200
• Equity at exit: $3,414

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 22.48×
• Total profit: $137,723
• Equity at exit: $1,980

Cash invested: $6,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$120
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $128/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $1,128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $178

Max offer price $22,900

Occupancy floor 25%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,141	-5% $1,134	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,121	+10% $1,115
Rent	-10% $1,001	-5% $1,064	+0% $1,128	+5% $1,191	+10% $1,255
Rate	-1.0pp $1,139	-0.5pp $1,134	base $1,128	+0.5pp $1,122	+1.0pp $1,116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,725
• Closing costs: $687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	14d	1	0.12mi
1518 Fillmore St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1560	$1,800	$1.15	14d	1	0.12mi
1415 Floyd St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	0.17mi
1401 Kemper St Lynchburg, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1118	$1,167	$1.04	21d	6	0.19mi
1308 16th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	0.21mi
1521 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1337	$1,195	$0.89	21d	1	0.28mi
1106 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1018	$875	$0.86	21d	1	0.29mi
1105 Fillmore St Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	44d	1	0.31mi
2269 Aragon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	44d	1	0.47mi
800 Pierce St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1714	$1,295	$0.76	44d	1	0.52mi
812 Taylor St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,950	$1.04	14d	1	0.56mi
900 Polk St Unit A Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1100	$895	$0.81	14d	1	0.61mi
1316 Harrison St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1535	$1,500	$0.98	44d	1	0.62mi
1008 8th St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,795	$1.36	21d	1	0.64mi
403 Grove St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	44d	1	0.66mi
318 Wadsworth St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	943	$995	$1.06	21d	1	0.71mi
2518 Carter St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1091	$1,500	$1.37	44d	1	0.76mi
630 Park Ln Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.5	1434	$1,895	$1.32	14d	1	0.78mi
601 Jackson St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1138	$1,595	$1.40	44d	1	0.79mi
320 Kenyon St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,595	$0.92	44d	1	0.80mi
512 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,295	$0.97	21d	1	0.81mi
317 Polk St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	44d	1	0.91mi
209 Munford St Lynchburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,497	$1.05	45d	1	0.93mi
106 Yeardley Ave Unit B Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1060	$895	$0.84	21d	1	1.20mi
2920 Richmond St Lynchburg, VA	4.0	1.0	1472	$1,695	$1.15	21d	1	1.23mi
2245 Landover Pl Lynchburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$965	$1.04	44d	2	1.38mi
2205 Mayflower Dr Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,450	$0.97	21d	1	1.45mi
507 Victoria Ave Unit 507 Lynchburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,700	$1.15	21d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2024-08-14
   price $22,900
2. 2023-11-23
   status Pending
3. 2023-11-07
   listed $22,900 Active
4. 2023-10-21
   status Active
5. 2023-09-24
   status Pending
6. 2023-08-28
   status Active
7. 2023-08-28
   price $22,900
8. 2023-08-09
   price $24,900
9. 2023-08-09
   historical
10. 2023-06-22
    price $24,900
11. 2023-06-03
    price $29,900
12. 2023-05-09
    listed $34,900 Active
13. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus $17,000 Closed 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

14. 2023-01-11
    soldstatus $17,000

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

15. 2022-12-23
    status Pending 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

16. 2022-12-16
    status Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

17. 2022-12-01
    status Pending 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

18. 2022-11-23
    price $29,000 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

19. 2022-11-18
    listed $30,000 Active 157-char remark

    Show marketing remark (157 chars)

    GUTTED DOWN to the STUDS! Ready for your finishing touches. Home is minutes from the express way and close to shopping + more. Ready for a full custom rehab.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $128 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $188 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 46.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,262
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,283
• − Property taxes: −$128
• − Insurance: −$114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$666
• Taxable income: $13,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,357
• After-tax cash flow: $10,176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-23.7% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $22,900 LMLS
• 2023-11-23 Pending — LMLS
• 2023-11-07 Listed $22,900 LMLS
• 2023-10-21 Relisted — LMLS
• 2023-09-24 Pending — LMLS
• 2023-08-28 Relisted — LMLS
• 2023-08-28 Price Changed $22,900 LMLS
• 2023-08-09 Price Changed $24,900 LMLS
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — LMLS
• 2023-06-22 Price Changed $24,900 LMLS
• 2023-06-03 Price Changed $29,900 LMLS
• 2023-05-09 Listed $34,900 LMLS
• 2023-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-11 Sold (MLS) $17,000 LMLS
• 2022-12-23 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-12-16 Relisted — LMLS
• 2022-12-01 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-11-23 Price Changed $29,000 LMLS
• 2022-11-18 Listed $30,000 LMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $128 · -25.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.