822 W Race St · Pottsville, PA 17901

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1910

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is a fixer upper. This home is currently not livable, it has been gutted for remodel. Home does have lots of supplies to complete kitchen and bathroom. With the right person this home can become a beautiful home.

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1910
• Construction: Single-family property with 1,296 living area
• Exterior features: Located in the Guinea Hill subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.6% vs local median 6.1% in Pottsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#442 in PA, #4,025 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Pottsville Area SD (town): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #395 of 539 in PA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 169 units permitted in Schuylkill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Schuylkill County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.55%
• DSCR: 4.54
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,424
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1308 Mount Hope Ave	0.37mi	2/— (-1)	1,240 (+3%)	2mo	$259,000	$209	72
241 Peacock St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,242 (+3%)	1mo	$97,000	$78	70
1507 W Market St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+4%)	6mo	$194,000	$154	65
617 Schuylkill Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-5%)	10mo	$180,000	$157	64
901 Fairview St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,388 (+15%)	5mo	$145,000	$104	61
1414 Mt Hope Ave	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,240 (+3%)	7mo	$80,000	$65	60
1023 W Schuylkill	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-13%)	4mo	$90,000	$85	57
103 N 16th St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,264 (+5%)	11mo	$130,500	$103	56
939 S Seneca St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+9%)	13mo	$205,000	$155	54
331 E Arch St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+8%)	11mo	$80,000	$62	51
239 Pierce St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+14%)	14mo	$130,000	$94	37
1729 W Norwegian St	0.73mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,353 (+12%)	8mo	$85,000	$63	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $44,591
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.37×
• Total profit: $116,124
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17901

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,081/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $401

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
631 W Race St Pottsville, PA	3.0	1.0	1340	$1,200	$0.90	43d	1	0.11mi
321 N 3rd St Pottsville, PA	4.0	1.5	1260	$1,400	$1.11	43d	1	0.30mi
909 Mahantongo St Unit 1 Pottsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	43d	1	0.32mi
119 S 11th St Pottsville, PA	3.0	1.5	1140	$1,450	$1.27	43d	1	0.35mi
210 Harrison St Pottsville, PA	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,200	$1.11	43d	1	0.39mi
426 Adams St Pottsville, PA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	43d	1	0.69mi
517 E Arch St Pottsville, PA	4.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.73mi
525 E Market St Pottsville, PA	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,250	$1.12	43d	1	0.76mi
536 E Arch St Pottsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1360	$975	$0.72	43d	1	0.78mi
8 N Wolfe St Pottsville, PA	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,795	$1.42	43d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,081 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,081 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$1,081
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,827
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,118
• After-tax cash flow: $6,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pottsville Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4219710
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,157
• Composite: 31.32/100
• National rank: #6002
• State rank: #395 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pottsville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #4025

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pottsville, PA
• County: Schuylkill County · 22,371 people
• City population: 22,371
• Metro: Pottsville, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,371
• Household income: $62,484
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Schuylkill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 137,447 people
• By 2030: 133,121 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 124,172 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 115,611 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 100,796 · -26.7%
• By 2100: 86,667 · -36.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Iranian 5% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Schuylkill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.1) · D 28.5% · R 70.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -42.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.1 2020: R+39.9 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.14%
• Current HPI: 200.6516
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.70%
• Metro: Pottsville, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $40,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,081 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.