18227 County Road 4001 · Mabank, TX 75147

$156,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,362 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 2023 Fair condition 6,970 sqft lot $115/sqft · 29% below area Est $219k · 29% under ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

Key facts

• 6,970 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $84k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,640 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,505
• List price: $156,000
• Delta: -28.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2908 Emma Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-4%)	4mo	$217,900	$166	75
2901 Emma Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-6%)	9mo	$237,000	$186	65
1023 Baker Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-6%)	4mo	$179,500	$141	64
2906 Emma Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-10%)	4mo	$207,900	$170	63
2020 Clay St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-6%)	14mo	$239,000	$187	63
2232 Samuel St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+14%)	1mo	$300,000	$193	62
3016 Morris Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+8%)	12mo	$284,000	$192	61
1002 Baker Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-5%)	5mo	$234,623	$182	60
1034 Springview Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-4%)	10mo	$249,000	$191	58
2004 Clay St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+12%)	8mo	$273,500	$179	57
1043 Springview Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-4%)	10mo	$249,000	$191	55
1042 Springview Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,301 (-4%)	12mo	$249,000	$191	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $99,768
• Equity at exit: $140,537

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.13×
• Total profit: $311,487
• Equity at exit: $303,074

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75147

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,243/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18409 County Road 4001 Mabank, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1750	$1,725	$0.99	1d	16	0.14mi
2730 William St Mabank, TX	4.0	2.0	1706	$1,649	$0.97	43d	1	0.23mi
2503 Jax St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1079	$1,695	$1.57	22d	1	0.23mi
2712 William St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,440	$1.40	43d	1	0.30mi
2027 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,414	$1.09	6d	1	0.31mi
2029 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,414	$1.38	43d	1	0.31mi
2031 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,314	$1.01	1d	1	0.31mi
2032 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,314	$1.10	5d	1	0.33mi
2034 Clay St Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,525	$1.17	43d	1	0.34mi
2904 Emma Ln Mabank, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,499	$1.15	43d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $156,000 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

3. 2026-04-13
   price $173,500 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

4. 2026-03-13
   price $204,000 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

5. 2026-02-05
   listed $240,000 Active 1096-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1096 chars)

   Spacious interior radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of the home is the amazing open concept living, dining and living area. Kitchen is equipt with gorgeous granite countertops, has a beautiful island and energy efficient appliances. This home is energy star cerifified and built in accordance with LEED standards. The seller is selling property in AS IS condition. Seller nor its representatives make any representations or warranties regarding the property. Broker must have active NAID number in order to submit offer. Broker must supervise agent through contract process. Upon closing, buyer must bring new hardware to change door locks after closing. For additional information, go to hudhomestore or RampRaineCompany for additional information on LeadBased Paint and Radon Gas and Mold notices, as well as ebidding and earnest money procedures, case 511-334578. Current disposition FHA insureable IN, 203K Eligible, FHA $100 Down Eligible. Information deemed reliable. However, Buyer and Buyer Agent responsible to verify all information, including schools, taxes, dimensions.

6. 2023-09-14
   soldstatus Closed 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   BUILDER IS OFFERING $10,000 FOR CLOSING COSTS. The Aspen inside and be greeted by a spacious interior that radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of this home is its beautiful kitchen, boasting granite countertops, an island, and energy-efficient appliances. This home is Energy Star® certified and built in accordance with LEED standards, meaning it is highly energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. Don't miss the opportunity to own this exceptional home!

7. 2023-09-04
   status Pending 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   BUILDER IS OFFERING $10,000 FOR CLOSING COSTS. The Aspen inside and be greeted by a spacious interior that radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of this home is its beautiful kitchen, boasting granite countertops, an island, and energy-efficient appliances. This home is Energy Star® certified and built in accordance with LEED standards, meaning it is highly energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. Don't miss the opportunity to own this exceptional home!

8. 2023-08-28
   historical Active Option Contract 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   BUILDER IS OFFERING $10,000 FOR CLOSING COSTS. The Aspen inside and be greeted by a spacious interior that radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of this home is its beautiful kitchen, boasting granite countertops, an island, and energy-efficient appliances. This home is Energy Star® certified and built in accordance with LEED standards, meaning it is highly energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. Don't miss the opportunity to own this exceptional home!

9. 2023-08-10
   price $239,900 480-char remark

   Show marketing remark (480 chars)

   BUILDER IS OFFERING $10,000 FOR CLOSING COSTS. The Aspen inside and be greeted by a spacious interior that radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of this home is its beautiful kitchen, boasting granite countertops, an island, and energy-efficient appliances. This home is Energy Star® certified and built in accordance with LEED standards, meaning it is highly energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. Don't miss the opportunity to own this exceptional home!

10. 2023-05-22
    listed $248,900 Active 480-char remark

    Show marketing remark (480 chars)

    BUILDER IS OFFERING $10,000 FOR CLOSING COSTS. The Aspen inside and be greeted by a spacious interior that radiates warmth and sophistication. The heart of this home is its beautiful kitchen, boasting granite countertops, an island, and energy-efficient appliances. This home is Energy Star® certified and built in accordance with LEED standards, meaning it is highly energy-efficient and environmentally friendly. Don't miss the opportunity to own this exceptional home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,243 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,243 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$4,243
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$1,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$326
• After-tax cash flow: $1,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with good systems and finishes, but some exterior repairs and landscaping improvements would enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Some wear visible
• Minor Landscaping — Snow and grass patches

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Some wear visible	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Snow and grass patches	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improved landscaping increases curb appeal and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mabank, TX
• County: Van Zandt County · 9,177 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,177
• Household income: $56,940
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.14%
• Current HPI: 254.32
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.13%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $156,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $173,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $204,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2023-09-14 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-09-04 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-08-28 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2023-05-22 Listed $248,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+81.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,243 · -7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.