3127 Cambridge Falls Dr · Fresno, TX 77545

$289,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2014 6,743 sqft lot $129/sqft · at area comps Est $297k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well desired DR Horton home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, and a game room for entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located downstairs and adjacent to the family room. The kitchen is an open concept that overlooks the family room. The formal dining room is an added bonus for holiday meals and family gatherings. Retreat in the backyard for serenity and enjoy outdoor family meals on the covered patio. Visit today and make this home of endless possibilities your very own.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Open concept
• Covered patio

Tags

• GAME ROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($40/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 175 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $271,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,419
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3111 Cambridge Falls Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,352 (+5%)	3mo	$315,000	$134	85
1927 Vermillion View St	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,215 (-1%)	1mo	$277,500	$125	76
2022 Wellfleet Xing	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,098 (-6%)	0mo	$290,000	$138	73
3002 Hurst Green Ln	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,566 (+15%)	3mo	$345,000	$134	66
2923 Vales Point Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,079 (-7%)	1mo	$306,900	$148	65
1931 Acorn Glen Trl	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+11%)	1mo	$279,900	$113	61
2403 Tall Sequoia Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,340 (+5%)	1mo	$332,500	$142	60
3007 Acacia Fair Ln	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,351 (+5%)	1mo	$310,000	$132	59
2406 Grove View Trl	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,165 (-3%)	2mo	$297,500	$137	57
2811 Darby Brook Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0	2,140 (-4%)	4mo	$275,000	$129	57
3103 Illinois St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,007 (-10%)	2mo	$350,000	$174	50
3407 Becker Glen St	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,948 (-13%)	0mo	$229,999	$118	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,245
• Equity at exit: $56,386

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-56,720
• Equity at exit: $48,433

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$549 /mo · $6,584/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $3

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,834

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3623 Elmwood Dale Dr Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,765	$1.14	43d	1	0.57mi
3806 Teal Maple Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	3.5	2318	$2,146	$0.93	2d	1	0.72mi
3932 Teal Run Place Ct Fresno, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,150	$1.12	43d	1	0.79mi
2403 Orchard Run Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$2,800	$1.92	3d	1	0.94mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	43d	1	1.06mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $289,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-04-17
    price $289,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well desired DR Horton home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, and a game room for entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located downstairs and adjacent to the family room. The kitchen is an open concept that overlooks the family room. The formal dining room is an added bonus for holiday meals and family gatherings. Retreat in the backyard for serenity and enjoy outdoor family meals on the covered patio. Visit today and make this home of endless possibilities your very own.

14. 2026-04-13
    listed $299,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    This well desired DR Horton home features 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, and a game room for entertaining. The primary bedroom is conveniently located downstairs and adjacent to the family room. The kitchen is an open concept that overlooks the family room. The formal dining room is an added bonus for holiday meals and family gatherings. Retreat in the backyard for serenity and enjoy outdoor family meals on the covered patio. Visit today and make this home of endless possibilities your very own.

15. 2024-03-07
    status Option Pending
16. 2024-03-06
    historical
17. 2024-02-28
    status Active
18. 2023-12-27
    historical
19. 2023-12-27
    listed $299,900 Active
20. 2020-05-21
    historical
21. 2020-04-29
    price $219,990
22. 2020-04-11
    price $224,990
23. 2020-02-14
    price $229,990
24. 2019-12-20
    price $232,500
25. 2019-12-17
    listed $242,500 Active
26. 2019-11-18
    status Pending
27. 2019-11-04
    status Option Pending
28. 2019-11-04
    historical
29. 2019-10-23
    price $209,990
30. 2019-10-18
    price $214,990
31. 2019-10-14
    listed $230,000 Active
32. 2017-12-22
    status Pending
33. 2017-12-19
    historical
34. 2017-11-27
    status Active
35. 2017-11-17
    price $207,200
36. 2017-11-17
    historical
37. 2017-11-14
    listed $202,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,584 · $549/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,584 · $549/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$6,584
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,724
• − Management: −$2,724
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$4,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-12-27 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2023-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-05-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-04-29 Price Changed $219,990 HARMLS
• 2020-04-11 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2020-02-14 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2019-12-20 Price Changed $232,500 HARMLS
• 2019-12-17 Listed $242,500 HARMLS
• 2019-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-10-23 Price Changed $209,990 HARMLS
• 2019-10-18 Price Changed $214,990 HARMLS
• 2019-10-14 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2017-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2017-11-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-11-17 Price Changed $207,200 HARMLS
• 2017-11-14 Listed $202,700 HARMLS

Property tax history

+25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,584 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.