1773 Old Forge Rd · Niles, OH 44446

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,780 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1959 0.38 ac lot $79/sqft · 33% below area Est $208k · 33% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NILES- Howland school district! 3 level Split with family rm and direct assist to garage. Basement has of 3 rooms. The home consist of 3 bedrooms , 2+1/2 baths, dinning rm , eat in kitchen with plenty of cabinets and a large living rm with foyer. The rear of the property is fenced with it's in-ground pool and plenty patio area for entertainment. Enclosed rear porch used as a sun room, that overlooks the in-ground pool. More play/garden space past the rear fence line. This home needs some TLC. , and it won't last long! Have your buyer's agent set up an appointment to view this property before it's gone.

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Fenced rear
• Patio area

Tags

• HOWLAND SCHOOL DISTRICT
• IN-GROUND POOL
• FENCED REAR
• ENCLOSED REAR PORCH
• SUN ROOM
• PATIO AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.8% in Niles — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#628 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Howland Local (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #260 of 656 in OH (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 129 units permitted in Trumbull County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trumbull County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,689
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -32.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2474 Johnnycake Rd SE	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,920 (+8%)	13mo	$240,000	$125	57
1414 Niles Cortland Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,568 (-12%)	1mo	$160,000	$102	51
1139 Lantern Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,882 (+6%)	9mo	$315,000	$167	47
178 Summerberry Ln	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,528 (-14%)	9mo	$190,000	$124	33
1464 Pepperwood Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,574 (-12%)	14mo	$280,000	$178	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-15,939
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,168
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44446

• Home prices YoY: -19.9%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $185	-5% $145	+0% $105	+5% $66	+10% $26
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $52	+0% $105	+5% $159	+10% $212
Rate	-1.0pp $176	-0.5pp $141	base $105	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $139,900 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    NILES- Howland school district! 3 level Split with family rm and direct assist to garage. Basement has of 3 rooms. The home consist of 3 bedrooms , 2+1/2 baths, dinning rm , eat in kitchen with plenty of cabinets and a large living rm with foyer. The rear of the property is fenced with it's in-ground pool and plenty patio area for entertainment. Enclosed rear porch used as a sun room, that overlooks the in-ground pool. More play/garden space past the rear fence line. This home needs some TLC. , and it won't last long! Have your buyer's agent set up an appointment to view this property before it's gone.

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $149,900 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    NILES- Howland school district! 3 level Split with family rm and direct assist to garage. Basement has of 3 rooms. The home consist of 3 bedrooms , 2+1/2 baths, dinning rm , eat in kitchen with plenty of cabinets and a large living rm with foyer. The rear of the property is fenced with it's in-ground pool and plenty patio area for entertainment. Enclosed rear porch used as a sun room, that overlooks the in-ground pool. More play/garden space past the rear fence line. This home needs some TLC. , and it won't last long! Have your buyer's agent set up an appointment to view this property before it's gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,101 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,028
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$247
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howland Local
• NCES district ID: 3905016
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,022
• Composite: 52.63/100
• National rank: #1556
• State rank: #260 of 656 in OH

Livability — Niles

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #628
• US rank: #11037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niles, OH
• County: Trumbull County · 61,158 people
• City population: 20,060
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 20,060
• Household income: $50,468
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 820.0

Population outlook (Trumbull County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 191,696 people
• By 2030: 184,015 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 166,810 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 149,857 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 115,769 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 83,617 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Trumbull

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.2% · R 58.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+6.4 2012: D+22.2 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.52%
• Current HPI: 198.7738
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $139,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-30 Listed $149,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,019 · +32.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.