2500 October Dr · Forestdale, AL 35005

$120,750

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1963 0.39 ac lot $79/sqft · 19% below area Est $148k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this extraordinary renovation! Absolutely nothing to do but move in! This full brick beauty features over 1500 sq feet in living space. It has been freshly painted inside and out and has beautifully updated kitchen and baths. The living room and bedrooms boast stunning refinished hardwood flooring. This drop dead gorgeous kitchen has updated cabinets, new granite countertops with an undermount sink, beautiful gray toned tile flooring and new stainless steel stove and dishwasher. Both bathrooms have had a full makeover as well and are picture perfect! The family room is spacious and features a sliding door to the side patio. There is a full unfinished, daylight basement perfect for storage, parking and or expansion. Home is situated on a large shady lot on a dead end street affording it a serene, private setting. The fenced yard is large but surprisingly low maintenance. You don’t have to sacrifice style and comfort for affordability! This is a must see!

Key facts

• Full brick
• Private lot
• Large eat in kitchen

Tags

• FULL BRICK
• FULL BASEMENT
• PRIVATE LOT
• DEAD END STREET
• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Rear garage entry; 1 total garage space (basement level)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system; Electric water heater; Internet service availability unknown
• Home design: 4-side brick construction; Basement foundation; Existing (previously built); Tri-level: no; Split-level: no; Split foyer: no; Located in the Wilson subdivision
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Basement foundation (concrete block)
• Exterior features: Open patio; Porch; No pool; No decks; No garden/patio view

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface countertops; Built-in dishwasher; Electric stove
• Bedrooms: Living area includes den/family and living room (all on main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower combo; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Hardwood and tile floors; Ceilings: other (see remarks); Eating area in kitchen; Full unfinished basement (concrete block)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $121k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $121k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 6.5% in Forestdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#367 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Minor Community School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #568 of 627 statewide, top 94%, 409 students, 84% FRL); Minor High School (math 4% / reading 8%, grade F, #275 of 305 statewide, top 90%, 915 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 49% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 8% at this address vs 20% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $834 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,127 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.29%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,392
• List price: $120,750
• Delta: -18.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Blackmon Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-7%)	15mo	$155,000	$110	58
2707 Forestdale Blvd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,454 (-5%)	16mo	$105,000	$72	57
3031 Summit Ridge Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-1%)	6mo	$175,000	$116	56
2341 Pershing Place Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	1mo	$269,900	$164	47
2802 Madison St	0.53mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,538 (+1%)	22mo	$185,000	$120	46
2349 Pershing Place Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (+8%)	2mo	$269,900	$164	46
902 Hillcrest Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,643 (+8%)	13mo	$156,000	$95	44
2525 Bow String Dr	0.48mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,360 (-11%)	7mo	$232,000	$171	41
129 Baggett Hills Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-7%)	17mo	$74,000	$52	40
3008 Crestlane Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-10%)	13mo	$160,250	$116	38
704 Hillcrest Rd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,733 (+14%)	12mo	$234,000	$135	38
701 Hillcrest Rd	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-14%)	24mo	$200,000	$152	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-4,736
• Equity at exit: $18,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,855
• Equity at exit: $10,440

Cash invested: $33,810 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,227 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$633
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $932

Max offer price $120,750

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $268	+0% $234	+5% $199	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $185	+0% $234	+5% $282	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $294	-0.5pp $264	base $234	+0.5pp $202	+1.0pp $170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,188
• Closing costs: $3,622
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,100	$0.75	45d	1	1.23mi
3716 Main St Adamsville, AL	2.0	1.0	1058	$896	$0.85	17d	1	1.24mi
308 Cimmaron Dr Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,250	$0.85	45d	1	1.24mi
2410 Roberta Rd Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,586	$1.02	22d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,750 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,750 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,750 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,750 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,750 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,750 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,750 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,750 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,750 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,750 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,750 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,750 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,750 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $120,750 Active 226-char remark
15. 2019-11-05
    soldstatus $127,900
16. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus $127,900 Sold 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Welcome home to this extraordinary renovation! Absolutely nothing to do but move in! This full brick beauty features over 1500 sq feet in living space. It has been freshly painted inside and out and has beautifully updated kitchen and baths. The living room and bedrooms boast stunning refinished hardwood flooring. This drop dead gorgeous kitchen has updated cabinets, new granite countertops with an undermount sink, beautiful gray toned tile flooring and new stainless steel stove and dishwasher. Both bathrooms have had a full makeover as well and are picture perfect! The family room is spacious and features a sliding door to the side patio. There is a full unfinished, daylight basement perfect for storage, parking and or expansion. Home is situated on a large shady lot on a dead end street affording it a serene, private setting. The fenced yard is large but surprisingly low maintenance. You don’t have to sacrifice style and comfort for affordability! This is a must see!

17. 2019-09-12
    historical Contingent 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Welcome home to this extraordinary renovation! Absolutely nothing to do but move in! This full brick beauty features over 1500 sq feet in living space. It has been freshly painted inside and out and has beautifully updated kitchen and baths. The living room and bedrooms boast stunning refinished hardwood flooring. This drop dead gorgeous kitchen has updated cabinets, new granite countertops with an undermount sink, beautiful gray toned tile flooring and new stainless steel stove and dishwasher. Both bathrooms have had a full makeover as well and are picture perfect! The family room is spacious and features a sliding door to the side patio. There is a full unfinished, daylight basement perfect for storage, parking and or expansion. Home is situated on a large shady lot on a dead end street affording it a serene, private setting. The fenced yard is large but surprisingly low maintenance. You don’t have to sacrifice style and comfort for affordability! This is a must see!

18. 2019-09-07
    listed $124,900 Active 991-char remark

    Show marketing remark (991 chars)

    Welcome home to this extraordinary renovation! Absolutely nothing to do but move in! This full brick beauty features over 1500 sq feet in living space. It has been freshly painted inside and out and has beautifully updated kitchen and baths. The living room and bedrooms boast stunning refinished hardwood flooring. This drop dead gorgeous kitchen has updated cabinets, new granite countertops with an undermount sink, beautiful gray toned tile flooring and new stainless steel stove and dishwasher. Both bathrooms have had a full makeover as well and are picture perfect! The family room is spacious and features a sliding door to the side patio. There is a full unfinished, daylight basement perfect for storage, parking and or expansion. Home is situated on a large shady lot on a dead end street affording it a serene, private setting. The fenced yard is large but surprisingly low maintenance. You don’t have to sacrifice style and comfort for affordability! This is a must see!

19. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus $69,000
20. 2019-01-08
    price $89,900
21. 2018-12-18
    price $95,000
22. 1995-03-28
    soldstatus $54,500
23. 1989-11-21
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $630 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $630 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,728
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,764
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$604
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$3,513
• Taxable income: $861
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$207
• After-tax cash flow: $2,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Forestdale

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #21236

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestdale, AL
• City population: 17,027
• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+121.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $120,750 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $127,900 Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) $127,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-09-12 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-09-07 Listed $124,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2019-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-08 Price Changed $89,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2018-12-18 Price Changed $95,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1995-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records
• 1989-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $630 · -50.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.