4433 Spotswood Trl · Barboursville, VA 22923

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2023 2.66 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Back on the market by NO fault of the seller! Welcome to this versatile 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home where country living meets modern convenience on an impressive 2.66-acre lot bursting with potential! Step inside to discover an inviting open floor plan that creates seamless flow between living spaces, ideal for everyday living to flawless entertaining. The spacious primary suite provides a true personal sanctuary, featuring a generous walk-in closet that make organization effortless. Outside, the partly wooded acreage beckons with endless possibilities. Whether you envision peaceful morning moments surrounded by nature, cultivating a garden paradise, pursuing outdoor hobbies, or building yo

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Walk-in closet
• 2.66 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PARTLY WOODED ACREAGE
• CONVENIENT ACCESS TO CULPEPER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 2.66 acres

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: Surveillance system
• Utilities: Private well water; Conventional sewer; Cable available; Fiber optic available; High-speed internet available; Satellite internet available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Built as manufactured home (year not provided)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Side porch; Partially cleared lot; Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom located downstairs; Walk-in closet(s); Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Recessed lighting; Vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry room on the main level; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $445 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.3% in Barboursville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Orange County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 131 in VA (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Barbour Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 321 students, 70% FRL); Prospect Heights Middle (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C+, #213 of 342 statewide, top 63%, 456 students, 68% FRL); Orange County High (math 61% / reading 72%, grade B, #195 of 319 statewide, top 62%, 1,476 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 412 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $300k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $282,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.35%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-20,423
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $18,144
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22923

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,065/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $445

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,262

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $615	-5% $530	+0% $445	+5% $360	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $333	+0% $445	+5% $556	+10% $668
Rate	-1.0pp $596	-0.5pp $521	base $445	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-05-22
   status Active
9. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
10. 2026-04-08
    price $300,000
11. 2026-03-18
    price $315,000
12. 2026-02-16
    status Active
13. 2026-01-21
    listed $335,000 Active
14. 2026-01-06
    historical
15. 2025-12-14
    price $340,000
16. 2025-11-20
    price $350,000
17. 2025-11-11
    listed $360,000 Active
18. 2025-10-17
    historical
19. 2022-08-05
    soldstatus $48,000
20. 2021-12-18
    historical
21. 2021-12-17
    listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,065 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,395/yr (+$116/mo · 131.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$1,065
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable income: $378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $5,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $61,086
• Composite: 48.34/100
• National rank: #2147
• State rank: #71 of 131 in VA

Livability — Barboursville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 21,992 people
• City population: 6,435
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 6,435
• Household income: $118,125
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,758 people
• By 2030: 40,411 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 43,477 · +12.2%
• By 2050: 45,856 · +18.3%
• By 2075: 51,067 · +31.8%
• By 2100: 51,387 · +32.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.2% · R 61.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -8.8pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+21.4 2016: R+26.6 2012: R+14.5 2008: R+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.41%
• Current HPI: 303.0348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+362.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-04-11 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $300,000 CAAR
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $315,000 CAAR
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-01-21 Listed $335,000 CAAR
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $340,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $350,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $360,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-08-05 Sold (MLS) $48,000 CVRMLS
• 2021-12-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-17 Listed $64,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+15.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,065 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.