318 Obrien · Gridley, CA 95948

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1980 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to life at 318 Obrien Ave in East Gridley. This property is all about potential. Situated on a desirable . 37 acre lot and featuring a detached shop, and an abundance of extra paved parking, it offers a rare opportunity to create something special. The 1,440 SF 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom manufactured home is in need of repair, making this an excellent candidate for renovation. Conveniently located in the Manzanita School District.

Key facts

• Extra paved parking
• Detached shop
• Desirable lot

Tags

• DETACHED SHOP
• EXTRA PAVED PARKING
• DESIRABLE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total units: 1; No common walls; Living area: estimated; Certified 433a
• Financial info: Assessments: unknown
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces; 2 total parking spaces; Paved parking; Oversized garage with workshop and RV potential
• Utilities: Water from well; Sewer/septic: unknown
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Raised foundation; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Raised foundation; Property condition: needs major repairs; Year built: estimated
• Exterior features: Awning; Shop/other outbuilding; Level lot with street access; Rectangular lot shape; Has a view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (details not specified)
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (see remarks); Cooling present (see remarks)
• Interior features: Sliding glass door(s); One-level layout; Primary suite; Family room with fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.0% in Gridley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#644 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living D.
• Manzanita Elementary (rural): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #353 of 1,400 in CA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,019 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-14,072
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,333
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95948

• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $133	+0% $97	+5% $62	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $6	-5% $52	+0% $97	+5% $143	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $129	base $97	+0.5pp $65	+1.0pp $32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   status $125,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   status Pending Sale 447-char remark
7. 2026-04-30
   listed $125,000 Active 447-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$914
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$219
• After-tax cash flow: $1,387/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manzanita Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0623700
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,094
• Composite: 48.64/100
• National rank: #4574
• State rank: #353 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Gridley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #644
• US rank: #20136

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,118

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 12% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.05%
• Current HPI: 259.6078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $125,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,245 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.