158 Northcrest Acres Park · Avon, PA 17046

$95,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1988

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• Sunroom
• Deck

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• SUNROOM
• DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $693 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#483 in PA, #4,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $95k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.27%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $36,323
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $122,477
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17046

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $909/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $693

Break-even live

Break-even rent $777

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Robert's Cir Lebanon, PA	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,625	$1.23	43d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

2. 2026-05-11
   historical 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

3. 2026-03-04
   status Active 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

4. 2026-02-11
   status Pending 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

5. 2026-02-03
   listed $95,000 Active 844-char remark

   Show marketing remark (844 chars)

   Welcome home to easy, affordable living! This lovely 2-bedroom mobile home offers an open floorplan that feels bright and spacious. Both bedrooms are generously sized, each with their own private bathroom and tons of closet space. The oversized kitchen is a standout with abundant cabinet space, perfect for storage and everyday cooking, and it flows seamlessly into the main living area. A convenient separate laundry area adds to the home’s functionality. Enjoy extra living space in the sunroom, or relax outdoors on the deck or covered porch- great for morning coffee or evening unwinding. Find additional storage in the oversized shed. Lot rent is $495 per month, making this a budget-friendly option with plenty of space to enjoy. Schedule your showing and see how comfortable mobile home living can be! This is NOT a 55+ community.

6. 1999-05-20
   soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $909 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,205 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$296/yr (+$25/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$909
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,588
• − Management: −$1,588
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,729
• After-tax cash flow: $6,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall-Lebanon SD
• NCES district ID: 4206840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $62,483
• Composite: 41.0/100
• National rank: #3589
• State rank: #219 of 539 in PA

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #4457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lebanon County · 95,836 people
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,835
• Household income: $62,221
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 905.0

Population outlook (Lebanon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,806 people
• By 2030: 147,534 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 152,952 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 159,406 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 181,736 · +25.5%
• By 2100: 198,402 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Lebanon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.6% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 217.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.36%
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+138.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $909 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.