406 5th Ave SW · Surrey, ND 58785

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,632 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1979 9,670 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Open dining area
• Nice sized yard
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• FINISHED READY LOWER LEVEL
• PRIVATE FULL BATHROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• OPEN DINING AREA
• NICE SIZED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#167 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Surrey 41 (rural): math 28% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #36 of 53 in ND (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 123 units permitted in Ward County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $493 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Ward County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $150k implies a 2400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.58%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $402,696
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
406 5th Ave SW	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,632 (0%)	1mo	$140,000	$53	99
107 2nd Ave NW	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,688 (+2%)	3mo	$300,000	$112	74
317 6th Ave SW	0.14mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,808 (+7%)	3mo	$445,000	$158	71
319 7th Ave SW	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,712 (+3%)	15mo	$415,000	$153	65
416 3rd Ave SW	0.12mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,536 (-4%)	22mo	$445,900	$176	61
600 4th St SW	0.11mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,880 (+9%)	16mo	$440,000	$153	57
307 7th Ave SW	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,238 (-15%)	9mo	$379,900	$170	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.33% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $14,791
• Equity at exit: $46,037

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $56,787
• Equity at exit: $57,360

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58785

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $849/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,164

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-01-09
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 2025-09-24
   price $155,000
5. 2025-09-08
   price $165,000
6. 2025-09-02
   status Active
7. 2025-08-13
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-08-07
   price $175,000
9. 2025-06-30
   price $180,000
10. 2025-05-29
    listed $185,000 Active
11. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
12. 2010-07-12
    soldstatus
13. 2005-08-03
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $849 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$621/yr (+$52/mo · 73.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$849
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $3,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Surrey 41
• NCES district ID: 3817910
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,486
• Composite: 29.6/100
• National rank: #6479
• State rank: #36 of 53 in ND

Livability — Surrey

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #11845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surrey, ND
• Population (ZIP): 1,729

Population outlook (Ward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,683 people
• By 2030: 104,825 · +13.1%
• By 2040: 131,945 · +42.4%
• By 2050: 163,134 · +76.0%
• By 2075: 256,561 · +176.8%
• By 2100: 354,426 · +282.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 24% Lithuanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ward

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.5% · R 72.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+44.9 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+30.8 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.33%
• Current HPI: 96.3552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+2400.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — MMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $150,000 MMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $155,000 MMLS
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $165,000 MMLS
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — MMLS
• 2025-08-13 Contingent — MMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $175,000 MMLS
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $180,000 MMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $185,000 MMLS
• 2011-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $849 · -63.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.