118 2nd Ave W · Turtle Lake, ND 58575

$105,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily · 170 Days on market

Built 1916 10,500 sqft lot Est $114k · 8% under ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Modern upgrades
• Fenced yard
• Recently renovated

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• MODERN UPGRADES
• FENCED YARD
• GREAT STORAGE OPTIONS
• INSULATED AND HEATED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: Two three-quarter bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Washer; Partial basement; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#198 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment D+.
• Turtle Lake-Mercer 72 (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 169 in ND (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in McLean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• McLean County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.47%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,478
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Eggert St	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,257 (-0%)	2mo	$124,900	$99	83
308 Main St	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,243 (-1%)	22mo	$18,400	$15	68
303 Kundert St	0.13mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-13%)	19mo	$99,500	$91	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $20,180
• Equity at exit: $49,454

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $61,726
• Equity at exit: $78,004

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58575

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   price $105,000
3. 2025-12-28
   price $125,000
4. 2025-11-21
   listed $158,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,312
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$985
• − Management: −$985
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$694
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,186/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turtle Lake-Mercer 72
• NCES district ID: 3818500
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,052
• Composite: 42.66/100
• National rank: #6804
• State rank: #69 of 169 in ND

Livability — Turtle Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #13852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turtle Lake, ND
• Population (ZIP): 904

Population outlook (McLean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,405 people
• By 2030: 12,337 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 14,426 · +26.5%
• By 2050: 16,850 · +47.7%
• By 2075: 24,191 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 30,714 · +169.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scottish 5% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.2% · R 78.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+53.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 108.0978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-33.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $105,000 GNMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $125,000 GNMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $158,000 GNMLS