15019 Baikal Teal Ter · Magnolia, TX 77354

$317,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,931 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2025 7,352 sqft lot $154/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

Key facts

• 7,352 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $244k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $244k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $243,719 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.24%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $160,815
• Equity at exit: $286,390

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $466,407
• Equity at exit: $617,610

Cash invested: $89,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,667
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$154
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,553

Max offer price $301,681

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $88	-5% $-2	+0% $-92	+5% $-182	+10% $-272
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-188	+0% $-92	+5% $4	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $-11	base $-92	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,475
• Closing costs: $9,537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14727 Band Tailed Pigeon Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1942	$2,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.32mi
14983 Clay Harvest Rdg Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$2,375	$1.09	44d	1	0.34mi
15128 Lavender Mist Ct Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2561	$2,800	$1.09	20d	1	0.48mi
39899 Mill Creek Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1104	$2,726	$2.47	2d	40	0.59mi
40547 Berylline Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1753	$2,300	$1.31	44d	1	0.79mi
40558 Berylline Ln Unit NA Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,150	$1.43	25d	1	0.82mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $154 · $1,848/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

2. 2026-03-20
   price $317,900 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

3. 2026-01-15
   status Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

4. 2026-01-15
   price $329,900 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

5. 2025-09-29
   status Pending 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

6. 2025-09-02
   listed $319,900 Active 266-char remark

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

7. 2025-09-02
   historical

   Show marketing remark (266 chars)

   Welcome home to the beautiful Epsom floorplan. 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms with an attached 2 Car Garage. This floor plan boasts high ceilings and a spacious OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN. Family room, kitchen, breakfast room, formal dining room, and study/flex room.

8. 2025-07-24
   price $319,900
9. 2025-06-25
   price $339,900
10. 2025-03-18
    listed $349,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,818 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,054/yr (+$421/mo · 661.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,807
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,340
• − Management: −$2,340
• − HOA: −$1,848
• − Depreciation: −$9,248
• Taxable loss: −$6,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $504/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $317,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $329,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Price Changed $319,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $349,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.