23 Roth Ave · Longswamp, PA 19539

$39,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1971 $51/sqft · 35% below area Est $60k · 35% under $780/mo HOA · 40% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy affordable living with beautiful views of the countryside! This 2-bedroom home has received significant improvements over the past 6 years. All windows have been replaced, along with the electric, plumbing + water main and propane heater. The flooring and shower stall have also been updated and all the appliances + window air conditioners will remain with the property. The home has large closets plus a huge shed for additional storage. An entryway mudroom and covered deck add additional space and peaceful views. Although the immediate setting is rural, it's conveniently close to grocery stores, the post office, and a hardware store, with easy access to Routes 222 and 100. The neighb

Key facts

• Replaced windows
• Updated shower stall
• Entryway mudroom

Tags

• SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
• REPLACED WINDOWS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED SHOWER STALL
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• ENTRYWAY MUDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee of $780 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electric; Community/Coop water; Community/Coop sewer
• Home design: Single-story property; Zoned R
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Leased propane tank; Flat lot; Has a view; Mobile home on property

Interior

• Kitchen: All kitchen appliances stay; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two first-floor bedrooms (one with built-in storage and a closet)
• Flooring: Laminate; Luxury vinyl / Luxury vinyl plank; Resilient flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Built-in storage in a bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer stay; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $39k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $39k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brandywine Heights Area SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #241 of 658 in PA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 258 units permitted in Berks County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $270 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berks County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $37,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 56.77%
• DSCR: 3.53
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $59,918
• List price: $39,000
• Delta: -34.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.48×
• Total profit: $27,078
• Equity at exit: $5,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.22×
• Total profit: $67,952
• Equity at exit: $3,372

Cash invested: $10,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19539

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$205
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $277/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$780
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $39,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,750
• Closing costs: $1,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Barclay St Mertztown, PA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,950	$1.95	43d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $780 · $9,360/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,000 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,000 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,000 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,000 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,000 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,000 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,000 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,000 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    listed $47,000 Active 748-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $277 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $447 · $37/mo
• Expected delta: +$170/yr (+$14/mo · 61.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,185
• − Property taxes: −$277
• − Insurance: −$195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$9,360
• − Depreciation: −$1,135
• Taxable income: $6,505
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,561
• After-tax cash flow: $4,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brandywine Heights Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4204050
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 51.52/100
• National rank: #3670
• State rank: #241 of 658 in PA

Livability — Longswamp

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,112

Population outlook (Berks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 425,767 people
• By 2030: 428,814 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 433,463 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 439,426 · +3.2%
• By 2075: 478,647 · +12.4%
• By 2100: 518,507 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Polish 9% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Berks

• 2024 margin: R (+12.2) · D 43.4% · R 55.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.4pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+10.2 2012: R+0.6 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.38%
• Current HPI: 269.7792
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $39,000 GLVRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $47,000 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $277 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.