1230 Melrose Ave · New Castle, PA 16101

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1930 Est $89k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• ARV discount +4.3/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

POF/PRE APPROVAL FROM COUNTRYWIDE. IF MORTGAGED THRU COUNTRYWIDE, FREE APPRAISAL & CREDIT REPORT. 1 CAR DETACHED GARAGE . COVERED PATIO. NEEDS TLC. MISSING PLUMBING. 1008 +- SF. ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR RESPONSE

Key facts

• Built 1930
• Listed 37 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 8.7% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $95k implies a 538% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.92%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,704
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1211 Gale St	0.27mi	2/1.0 (-1)	944 (-6%)	0mo	$150,000	$159	72
916 Temple Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	904 (-10%)	1mo	$80,000	$88	71
939 Warren Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,123 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$120	69
1023 Beckford St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,104 (+10%)	3mo	$25,000	$23	60
1602 National St	0.53mi	3/1.0	962 (-5%)	9mo	$48,000	$50	60
1815 E Washington St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,134 (+12%)	6mo	$69,000	$61	57
746 Castle St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+6%)	2mo	$169,900	$159	57
819 Addis St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	930 (-8%)	7mo	$62,000	$67	54
1417 Randolph St	0.55mi	3/1.0	888 (-12%)	0mo	$78,326	$88	54
1613 E Washington St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,152 (+14%)	10mo	$90,000	$78	54
903 S Cascade St	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	875 (-13%)	11mo	$179,900	$206	52
1218 Finch St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,128 (+12%)	9mo	$128,000	$113	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $17,274
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $81,147
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16101

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $884

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $424	+0% $397	+5% $370	+10% $343
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $342	+0% $397	+5% $452	+10% $507
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $421	base $397	+0.5pp $373	+1.0pp $348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1056 Adams St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.34mi
932 Morton St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,375	$0.95	44d	1	0.70mi
1112 Williams St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	44d	1	0.82mi
712 E Reynolds St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1182	$975	$0.82	44d	1	0.85mi
503 Galbreath St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,295	$1.05	44d	1	1.12mi
1605 S Jefferson St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $95,000 Active 45-char remark
17. 2009-03-30
    soldstatus $14,900 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    POF/PRE APPROVAL FROM COUNTRYWIDE. IF MORTGAGED THRU COUNTRYWIDE, FREE APPRAISAL & CREDIT REPORT. 1 CAR DETACHED GARAGE . COVERED PATIO. NEEDS TLC. MISSING PLUMBING. 1008 +- SF. ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR RESPONSE

18. 2009-02-03
    listed $14,900 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    POF/PRE APPROVAL FROM COUNTRYWIDE. IF MORTGAGED THRU COUNTRYWIDE, FREE APPRAISAL & CREDIT REPORT. 1 CAR DETACHED GARAGE . COVERED PATIO. NEEDS TLC. MISSING PLUMBING. 1008 +- SF. ALLOW 2-3 BUSINESS DAYS FOR RESPONSE

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,491
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$838
• After-tax cash flow: $3,928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• County: Lawrence County · 30,767 people
• City population: 30,767
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,767
• Household income: $51,128
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.77%
• Current HPI: 159.3091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+537.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $95,000 FSBO.com
• 2009-03-30 Sold (MLS) $14,900 West Penn MLS
• 2009-02-03 Listed $14,900 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,922 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.