1965 Ave J · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$699,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Built 2012 Good condition 4,521 sqft lot $311/sqft · 10% below area Est $773k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and spacious second row beach home with first row views protected by county buyouts! This freshly updated 5 bedroom, 3.5 bath 2nd row beach home features two levels of private decks - each with panoramic views of the beach and Gulf of Mexico. Just steps away from your "toes in the sand". The beach is accessible by walking, golf cart or vehicle on the nearby access street just a few steps away. The house is centrally located near all the wonderful shops, restaurants, and night life that Crystal Beach has to offer! This home would make an excellent STR or second home!

Key facts

• Private decks
• Centrally located
• Panoramic views

Tags

• PRIVATE DECKS
• PANORAMIC VIEWS
• ACCESSIBLE BY WALKING
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $699k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $699k).
• Recommended offer: $615k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 2.0% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 881 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $8,304/mo this rent would consume 139% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($615k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $100k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $669/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone VE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $615,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.60%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $773,080
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -9.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2025 Vista Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,184 (-3%)	1mo	$575,000	$263	72
834 Kahla Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,550 (+14%)	5mo	$799,000	$313	62
1759 Redfish Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,090 (-7%)	1mo	$675,000	$323	60
1219 N Crystal Beach Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (-8%)	10mo	$709,000	$344	50
2320 Trinidad Dr	0.90mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,348 (+5%)	11mo	$1,250,000	$532	41
2336 Martinique	0.98mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,390 (+6%)	12mo	$664,990	$278	37
lot 34 Martinique	0.99mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,390 (+6%)	23mo	$649,000	$272	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-45,186
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $49,808
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 25.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $692,000 ($327/sqft)
• Median days on market: 144 d
• This list price: 52% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 881
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $8,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,485/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$669 /mo · $8,028/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,744
• Net cashflow: $1,061

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,962

Max offer price $699,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,544	-5% $1,302	+0% $1,061	+5% $819	+10% $577
Rent	-10% $405	-5% $733	+0% $1,061	+5% $1,389	+10% $1,717
Rate	-1.0pp $1,413	-0.5pp $1,238	base $1,061	+0.5pp $879	+1.0pp $695

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
951 Gulf Shores Dr Unit 1223252P Crystal Beach, TX	3.0–6.0	2.0–5.0	2362	$8,304	$3.52	0d	2	0.25mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $699,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $699,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $699,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $699,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $699,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $699,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $699,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $699,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $699,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $699,000 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $699,000 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $699,000 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $699,000 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $699,000 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $699,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $699,000 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $699,000 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $699,000 Active 127 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $699,000 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $699,000 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $699,000 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $699,000 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $699,000 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $699,000 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $699,000 Active 119 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $699,000 Active 118 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $699,000 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $699,000 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $699,000 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $699,000 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $699,000 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $699,000 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $699,000 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $699,000 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $699,000 Active 109 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $699,000 Active 108 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $699,000 Active 106 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $699,000 Active 104 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $699,000 Active 103 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $699,000 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $699,000 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $699,000 Active 98 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $699,000 Active 97 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $699,000 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    price $699,000 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $749,000 Active 91 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $749,000 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $749,000 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $749,000 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $749,000 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone VE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $99,648
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$10,485
• − Insurance: −$11,523
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,972
• − Management: −$7,972
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable income: $2,207
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$530
• After-tax cash flow: $12,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,220–$33,660 screening

This well-maintained beachfront home offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs needed and potential for value increase through cosmetic updates.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring wood Counters granite Appliances stainless steel

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale install new flooring in bathrooms — improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Resale upgrade kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and appeals to buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Crenshaw El And Middle F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Central Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+48.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $799,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $799,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $839,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-11 Listed $849,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-05 Delisted — Galveston MLS
• 2020-02-13 Listed $519,000 Galveston MLS
• 2019-09-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $519,000 Galveston MLS
• 2019-07-01 Price Changed $519,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-30 Listed $539,000 HARMLS
• 2019-06-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-03-23 Listed $539,000 HARMLS
• 2018-11-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-07-26 Price Changed $519,000 HARMLS
• 2018-06-08 Listed $539,900 HARMLS