5271 Celestial Ct · Arcola, TX 77583

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $189/sqft · 47% below area Est $536k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One-story | 3 bedrooms | 2 baths | 1-car attached garage | Covered Patio

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Parking
• Built 2026

Tags

• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-697 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,116 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.07%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $535,520
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: -46.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12915 Green Valley Dr	1.06mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	4mo	$325,000	$203	52
2711 County Road 62	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,808 (+20%)	18mo	$544,900	$301	50
13012 Green Valley Dr	1.08mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	8mo	$279,900	$175	49
2510 County Road 62	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,804 (+20%)	23mo	$719,900	$399	45
12525 County Road 421	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,800 (+19%)	24mo	$285,000	$158	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-95,693
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -84.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.01×
• Total profit: $-160,365
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active
• Median asking: $325,000 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +92.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-697

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $184,116

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-500	-5% $-599	+0% $-697	+5% $-796	+10% $-894
Rent	-10% $-867	-5% $-782	+0% $-697	+5% $-612	+10% $-527
Rate	-1.0pp $-554	-0.5pp $-625	base $-697	+0.5pp $-771	+1.0pp $-846

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $285,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Exterior features: Address: 5271 Celestial Ct, Arcola TX 77583

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Countryside planLiving area approximately 1508

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-26
   days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-24
   days on market $285,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-13
    days on market $285,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $285,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $285,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 42 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 41 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    status Active 72-char remark
20. 2026-05-15
    price $285,000 72-char remark
21. 2026-05-15
    historical 72-char remark
22. 2026-04-20
    listed $309,240 Active 72-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,806
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$6,544
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$13,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,540–$22,620 screening

This one-story home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and well-maintained interior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance or upgrade — A reliable HVAC system is essential for comfort and can reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

---

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $285,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Exterior features: Address: 5271 Celestial Ct, Arcola TX 77583

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec-built Countryside planLiving area approximately 1508