1209 Blue Sky Pl · Valrico, FL 33527

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,860 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1998 0.37 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with an additional bonus room for your office or nursery. Home sits on over a quarter acre and has a large 2 vehicle carport. Enjoy the quiet, country life while only a short drive to Tampa or Lakeland. HUD Case# 093-619676. FHA Insurable with Escrow. Owner Occupants, Nonprofits, and Government Agencies Only for the first 30 Days. HUD HOME FOR SALE. Sold "AS IS". Buyer to verify all information.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Remodeled kitchen
• Bonus room

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• BONUS ROOM
• LARGE CARPORT
• METAL ROOF
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• REMODELED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#442 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $265k implies a 486% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,888 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-28,332
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-5,875
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33527

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,124/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,228

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $265,000 Active
3. 2013-05-31
   soldstatus $45,200 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with an additional bonus room for your office or nursery. Home sits on over a quarter acre and has a large 2 vehicle carport. Enjoy the quiet, country life while only a short drive to Tampa or Lakeland. HUD Case# 093-619676. FHA Insurable with Escrow. Owner Occupants, Nonprofits, and Government Agencies Only for the first 30 Days. HUD HOME FOR SALE. Sold "AS IS". Buyer to verify all information.

4. 2013-04-04
   listed $44,000 444-char remark

   Show marketing remark (444 chars)

   3 bedroom, 2 bath manufactured home with an additional bonus room for your office or nursery. Home sits on over a quarter acre and has a large 2 vehicle carport. Enjoy the quiet, country life while only a short drive to Tampa or Lakeland. HUD Case# 093-619676. FHA Insurable with Escrow. Owner Occupants, Nonprofits, and Government Agencies Only for the first 30 Days. HUD HOME FOR SALE. Sold "AS IS". Buyer to verify all information.

5. 2007-11-09
   soldstatus $130,000
6. 2007-11-08
   soldstatus $130,000 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   SHOWS VERY WELL!!!!!!!! 4/2 WITH 2 CAR CARPORT, UTILITY SHED, LARGE SCREENED LANAI, AND FENCED YARD! VACANT AND READY FOR IMMEDIATE OCCUPANCY. HUGE LIVING ROOM, AND GARDEN TUB IN MASTER BATH, A MUST SEE.

7. 2007-07-30
   listed $135,000 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   SHOWS VERY WELL!!!!!!!! 4/2 WITH 2 CAR CARPORT, UTILITY SHED, LARGE SCREENED LANAI, AND FENCED YARD! VACANT AND READY FOR IMMEDIATE OCCUPANCY. HUGE LIVING ROOM, AND GARDEN TUB IN MASTER BATH, A MUST SEE.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,124 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,124
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,418
• − Management: −$2,418
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$1,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $3,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Valrico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #442
• US rank: #7901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 65,118
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,364
• Household income: $80,464
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 433.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.50%
• Current HPI: 324.2363
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+96.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-05-31 Sold (MLS) $45,200 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-04 Listed $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2007-11-08 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-30 Listed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,124 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.