3203 Maple Grove Dr · Varnell, GA 30721

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1999 0.52 ac lot $84/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor Opportunity in North Whitfield County! This 3BD/1.5BA home with garage sits on a level lot with a great yard and offers plenty of potential. The home features a kitchen open to the dining area along with a large, spacious living room. Convenient location with room to add value and make it your own. Due to the home's condition, and being part mobile home, cash buyer preferred.

Key facts

• Level lot
• Large living room
• Convenient location

Tags

• LEVEL LOT
• KITCHEN OPEN TO DINING AREA
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 2.5% in Varnell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#276 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitfield County (rural): math 37% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #62 of 174 in GA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 384 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 374 units permitted in Whitfield County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitfield County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.51%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $258,874
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -51.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2002 Broadacre Rd NW	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-2%)	4mo	$245,000	$168	64
337 Pacer Lane Ln #4	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,348 (-9%)	5mo	$294,900	$219	47
359 Pacer Lane Ln #4	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+11%)	8mo	$360,000	$218	46
502 Wynfield Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+3%)	24mo	$324,900	$213	40
324 Mercer Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-8%)	13mo	$270,000	$199	38
3009 Alpharetta Drive Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+12%)	16mo	$310,000	$187	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,584
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $44,667
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30721

• Active inventory: 384
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,656 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3143 Sonya Dr NW Dalton, GA	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	43d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $125,000 Active 387-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $125,000 Active 387-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,590
• − Management: −$1,590
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$876
• After-tax cash flow: $4,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitfield County
• NCES district ID: 1305700
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,296
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #6290
• State rank: #62 of 174 in GA

Livability — Varnell

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #276
• US rank: #14823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Whitfield County · 80,309 people
• City population: 3
• Metro: Dalton, GA
• Population (ZIP): 53,060
• Household income: $62,094
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (Whitfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,770 people
• By 2030: 108,737 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 110,260 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 111,205 · +3.2%
• By 2075: 113,014 · +4.9%
• By 2100: 112,775 · +4.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 47% Two or more races 10% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitfield

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 27.5% · R 72.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.5pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+40.7 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+45.1 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -220.10%
• Current HPI: 314.9341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dalton, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 CCARMLS

Property tax history

+25.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.