4310 W 22nd Pl · Gary, IN 46404

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1956 $137/sqft · 12% above area Est $115k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this beautifully renovated ranch with a nice private yard. This house gives you 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and really nice size kitchen. It is not too far from the highway or the Hardrock Casino. Don't miss this opportunity.

Key facts

• Size kitchen
• Private yard
• Renovated ranch

Tags

• RENOVATED RANCH
• PRIVATE YARD
• SIZE KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $255 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $129k implies a 1620% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.46%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,488
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 11.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4082 W 21st Pl	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	941 (0%)	1mo	$129,900	$138	84
4241 W 22nd Plz	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-2%)	8mo	$63,000	$68	80
4251 W 20th Pl	0.19mi	3/1.0 (+1)	950 (+1%)	9mo	$100,000	$105	78
4144 W 23rd Ave	0.17mi	3/1.5 (+1)	900 (-4%)	1mo	$80,000	$89	77
2165 Williams St	0.08mi	3/1.5 (+1)	890 (-5%)	9mo	$135,000	$152	72
4154 W 23rd Ave	0.16mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-4%)	10mo	$57,000	$63	72
1945 Lane St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-2%)	4mo	$50,000	$54	72
4233 W 22nd Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0 (+1)	850 (-10%)	6mo	$82,000	$96	70
3902 W 21st Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (-2%)	9mo	$126,000	$136	69
4123 W 19th Pl	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	981 (+4%)	5mo	$75,000	$76	67
4420 W 19th Plz	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	981 (+4%)	11mo	$130,000	$133	62
2222 Burr St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,038 (+10%)	8mo	$90,000	$87	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,427
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $55,393
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46404

• Home prices YoY: -4.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4300 W 22nd Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	977	$1,395	$1.43	2d	1	0.02mi
4328 W 22nd Plz Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	3d	1	0.07mi
4134 W 22nd Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	825	$1,395	$1.69	1d	1	0.15mi
4061 W 20th Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	925	$1,450	$1.57	1d	1	0.26mi
1043 Mount St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	750	$1,200	$1.60	1d	1	1.01mi
1531 Taney Pl Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,045	$1.16	1d	1	1.04mi
1595 Ellsworth St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	868	$1,100	$1.27	2d	1	1.28mi
1595 Ellsworth St Unit 1 Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	868	$1,100	$1.27	1d	1	1.28mi
2264 Taft St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	800	$1,275	$1.59	1d	1	1.29mi
2939 W 10th Ave Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	744	$1,190	$1.60	1d	1	1.30mi
2280 Roosevelt Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	864	$1,560	$1.81	1d	1	1.36mi
743 Hanley St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	800	$1,350	$1.69	1d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Come check out this beautifully renovated ranch with a nice private yard. This house gives you 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and really nice size kitchen. It is not too far from the highway or the Hardrock Casino. Don't miss this opportunity.

2. 2026-05-01
   price $129,000 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Come check out this beautifully renovated ranch with a nice private yard. This house gives you 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and really nice size kitchen. It is not too far from the highway or the Hardrock Casino. Don't miss this opportunity.

3. 2026-04-16
   price $134,900 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Come check out this beautifully renovated ranch with a nice private yard. This house gives you 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and really nice size kitchen. It is not too far from the highway or the Hardrock Casino. Don't miss this opportunity.

4. 2026-03-16
   listed $139,900 Active 235-char remark

   Show marketing remark (235 chars)

   Come check out this beautifully renovated ranch with a nice private yard. This house gives you 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and really nice size kitchen. It is not too far from the highway or the Hardrock Casino. Don't miss this opportunity.

5. 2026-02-06
   historical
6. 2025-12-06
   status Active
7. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
8. 2025-10-27
   price $133,000
9. 2025-10-17
   status Active
10. 2025-08-24
    status Pending
11. 2025-08-13
    historical Active Under Contract
12. 2025-07-21
    price $135,000
13. 2025-07-07
    price $139,900
14. 2025-06-18
    price $145,000
15. 2025-06-06
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2025-06-05
    historical
17. 2025-06-04
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2025-02-24
    soldstatus $7,500 Closed
19. 2024-10-21
    status Pending
20. 2015-10-29
    soldstatus $9,000
21. 2015-06-29
    listed $13,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,046 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$50/yr (+$4/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $1,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$241
• After-tax cash flow: $2,814/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,428
• Household income: $42,256
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.76%
• Current HPI: 252.6463
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.62%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+821.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $129,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $134,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Listed $139,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $133,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-24 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $135,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $139,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $145,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-06 Listed $150,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-04 Listed $150,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Sold (MLS) $7,500 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-29 Sold (MLS) $9,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-06-29 Listed $13,999 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $996 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.