15664 SW 28th Ln · Rainbow Park, FL 34481

$222,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,087 sqft · Land · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Limited-time incentive: Seller offering a $5,000 contribution toward the buyer’s closing costs with an accepted full-price offer. Country living at its finest! New home on an undeveloped road. Discover the charm of this new construction “Maplewood” model by Bakan Homes. Thoughtfully designed to blend affordability with everyday comfort, this home presents a wonderful opportunity for buyers seeking stylish, attainable homeownership. Inside, you’ll find 8’ ceilings in the bedrooms and vaulted ceilings in the main living areas, creating an open and inviting feel throughout. The kitchen is efficiently designed with durable Formica countertops and stainless-steel ap

Key facts

• Builder warranty
• Maplewood model
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• MAPLEWOOD MODEL
• DURABLE FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BUILDER WARRANTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, single family; Zoning: R1; Living area reported by builder: 1,087 sq ft; Building area total: 1,448 sq ft; Permit number: 2025063584; Universal property ID available

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Stucco and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Bakan Homes (2026), model: Maplewood
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Dirt road access; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (74 x 135)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $223k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-304/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,778 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-37,706
• Equity at exit: $33,235

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-34,796
• Equity at exit: $19,272

Cash invested: $62,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34481

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,169
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$279 /mo · $3,344/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,950

Max offer price $219,230

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,725
• Closing costs: $6,687
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15388 SW 26th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,800	$1.48	13d	1	0.30mi
15854 SW 38th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	13d	1	0.78mi
14665 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,900	$1.55	13d	1	1.09mi
4486 SW 159th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1149	$2,500	$2.18	21d	1	1.23mi
14445 SW 22nd Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	21d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 669-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $222,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,486
• − Property taxes: −$3,344
• − Insurance: −$1,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,484
• Taxable loss: −$4,097
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$983
• After-tax cash flow: $679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Rainbow Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rainbow Park, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,782
• Household income: $57,324
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.48%
• Current HPI: 199.986
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $222,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+10.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $123 · +21.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.