6598 W State Highway 97 · Gonzales, TX 78614

$188,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1947 1.50 ac lot $151/sqft · 42% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this setting on the hill! Owner cut this off of 50 acre tract and lives on adjacent property, spacious rooms throughout, wood floors underneath carpet, large outbuilding provided for tons of storage, house needs some work, county water, could be fixed up even more to be a really nice place to raise your family out of the city! $5,000 allowance!

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Large outbuilding
• 1.5 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE OUTBUILDING
• ACCESS TO COUNTY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-378 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (37.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#720 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gonzales ISD (town): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #540 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gonzales North Avenue (math 45% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 549 students, 70% FRL); Gonzales J H (math 23% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,143 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 567 students, 76% FRL); Gonzales H S (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 791 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Gonzales County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Gonzales County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,438 (37.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.57%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $494,657
• List price: $188,900
• Delta: -61.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,281
• Equity at exit: $84,938

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $29,204
• Equity at exit: $130,899

Cash invested: $52,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78614

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$236 /mo · $2,834/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,652

Max offer price $134,248

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-247	-5% $-312	+0% $-378	+5% $-443	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-424	+0% $-378	+5% $-331	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-283	-0.5pp $-330	base $-378	+0.5pp $-427	+1.0pp $-476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,225
• Closing costs: $5,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,900 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,900 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $188,900 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,900 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    price $188,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Enjoy this setting on the hill! Owner cut this off of 50 acre tract and lives on adjacent property, spacious rooms throughout, wood floors underneath carpet, large outbuilding provided for tons of storage, house needs some work, county water, could be fixed up even more to be a really nice place to raise your family out of the city! $5,000 allowance!

17. 2026-04-24
    status Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Enjoy this setting on the hill! Owner cut this off of 50 acre tract and lives on adjacent property, spacious rooms throughout, wood floors underneath carpet, large outbuilding provided for tons of storage, house needs some work, county water, could be fixed up even more to be a really nice place to raise your family out of the city! $5,000 allowance!

18. 2026-03-28
    price $184,900 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Enjoy this setting on the hill! Owner cut this off of 50 acre tract and lives on adjacent property, spacious rooms throughout, wood floors underneath carpet, large outbuilding provided for tons of storage, house needs some work, county water, could be fixed up even more to be a really nice place to raise your family out of the city! $5,000 allowance!

19. 2026-03-17
    listed $179,900 Active 352-char remark

    Show marketing remark (352 chars)

    Enjoy this setting on the hill! Owner cut this off of 50 acre tract and lives on adjacent property, spacious rooms throughout, wood floors underneath carpet, large outbuilding provided for tons of storage, house needs some work, county water, could be fixed up even more to be a really nice place to raise your family out of the city! $5,000 allowance!

20. 2025-08-24
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-08-22
    listed $699,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,581
• − Property taxes: −$2,834
• − Insurance: −$944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$5,495
• Taxable loss: −$8,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,924
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gonzales ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821060
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 28.97/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #540 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #720
• US rank: #13452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 12,380
• Population (ZIP): 324

Population outlook (Gonzales County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,246 people
• By 2030: 23,060 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 24,661 · +10.9%
• By 2050: 26,046 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 29,289 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 30,112 · +35.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Gonzales

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.8) · D 22.3% · R 77.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: -30.4pp · 2024: -54.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.8 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+30.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-73.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $188,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $184,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $179,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-08-24 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $699,000 CTXMLS