922 Carbon Ave · Central City, PA 15926

$19,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 736 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1920 4,800 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Well-located value-add opportunity in Central City Borough within the Shade-Central City School District. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath Cape Cod sits on a level lot with public water and sewer. Features include a newer forced-air furnace, updated kitchen appliances, and a partial basement. Vacant and ready for renovation, offering strong potential in a quiet, affordable small-town market. Interior is dated and will need cosmetic updates, including flooring, paint, and clean-out. Front porch requires repair, and attic room shows prior water staining from an older roof issue that has been patched, no active leaks reported. Window A/C units only. Area offers low ownership costs, access to schools, pa

Key facts

• Access to schools
• Access to parks
• 4,800 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• ACCESS TO PARKS
• ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $674 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $19k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#1,333 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Shade-Central City SD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 658 in PA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $911 of equity ($138 loan paydown + $773 appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($19k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $20k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $18,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.24%
• DSCR: 7.46
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $50,784
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
404 Main St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	800 (+9%)	8mo	$54,900	$69	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.32×
• Total profit: $46,334
• Equity at exit: $9,957

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.61×
• Total profit: $103,668
• Equity at exit: $16,182

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15926

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $655/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $212

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-08
   soldstatus $11,000
2. 2026-02-19
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-15
   price $19,900
4. 2026-01-07
   price $24,990
5. 2025-12-19
   listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $655 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$655
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $8,291
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,990
• After-tax cash flow: $6,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shade-Central City SD
• NCES district ID: 4221180
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,850
• Composite: 43.81/100
• National rank: #6340
• State rank: #411 of 658 in PA

Livability — Central City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #1333
• US rank: #16460

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Central City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 2,474

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,318 people
• By 2030: 68,555 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,447 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 56,437 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 44,453 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 32,408 · -54.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.9 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 151.1455
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-62.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-19 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $19,900 West Penn MLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $24,990 West Penn MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $29,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $655 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.