159 Oconee Rd · Commerce, GA 30120

$244,850

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,627 sqft · SingleFamily · 61 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $150/sqft · 17% below area Est $296k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in Ready June! The Pierce plan in Fairington by Smith Douglas Homes. Step into effortless living with this well designed, to-be-built home offering easy maintance luxury. The main level features stylish LVP flooring throughout and a spacious layout. A cozy family room centers around a sleek and modern linear fireplace, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen is a dream with stainless appliances, granite counters and upgraded cabinetry. Step outside to the rear patio, offering a level yard, evening shade and a scenic wooded view, perfect for unwinding with friends and family in the warmer weather.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Upgraded cabinetry
• Linear fireplace

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• LINEAR FIREPLACE
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERS
• UPGRADED CABINETRY
• REAR PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-290 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.2% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Commerce Primary (486 students, 52% FRL); Commerce Middle School (math 44% / reading 51%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 530 students, 56% FRL); Commerce High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #37 of 424 statewide, top 9%, 493 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $177,487 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,133
• List price: $244,850
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Honeysuckle Dr	1.98mi	3/2.0	1,571 (-3%)	11mo	$275,000	$175	48
42 Edgefield Dr	2.07mi	3/2.0	1,796 (+10%)	3mo	$300,000	$167	43
2863 Maysville Rd	2.11mi	3/3.0	1,833 (+13%)	0mo	$279,000	$152	42
715 Woods Bridge Rd	1.86mi	3/2.0	1,823 (+12%)	4mo	$540,000	$296	40
949 Smallwood Dr	1.75mi	3/2.0	1,871 (+15%)	1mo	$380,000	$203	37
1044 Waterworks Rd	1.59mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-10%)	12mo	$288,000	$198	35
197 Peach St	2.19mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-26%)	6mo	$250,000	$208	33
15 Magnolia Creek Dr	1.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,012 (+24%)	1mo	$607,500	$302	32
671 Waterworks Rd	1.92mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,802 (+11%)	15mo	$223,000	$124	27
586 Roosevelt Blvd	1.99mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-16%)	15mo	$330,000	$241	26
343 Edgefield Dr	1.91mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,100 (+29%)	14mo	$399,000	$190	21
675 Waterworks Rd	1.91mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,238 (-24%)	13mo	$257,000	$208	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-63,318
• Equity at exit: $36,508

10-year hold

• IRR: -44.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-98,909
• Equity at exit: $21,170

Cash invested: $68,558 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $242,325 ($158/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30120

• Home prices YoY: -18.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,673/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $202,893

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-205	+0% $-290	+5% $-375	+10% $-459
Rent	-10% $-430	-5% $-360	+0% $-290	+5% $-220	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-228	base $-290	+0.5pp $-353	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,212
• Closing costs: $7,346
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price shown (financial details not included)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: Single-family home (spec plan named "The Pierce")
• Construction: New construction (spec)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,627 (living area shown)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliance details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas and electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry location not specified

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $244,850 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,850 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $244,850 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,850 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,850 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,850 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,850 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $244,850 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $244,850 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,850 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,850 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,850 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,850 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,850 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,850 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,850 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,850 Active 39 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $259,850 Active 38 DOM
19. 2026-04-22
    listed $259,850 Active 1334-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,715
• − Property taxes: −$3,673
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$7,123
• Taxable loss: −$7,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a well-designed layout, stylish finishes, and a serene outdoor space, making it an ideal investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping enhancement — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-up — Maintains a fresh and inviting interior ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Commerce Primary Middle Commerce Middle School C- GA #84/470 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High Commerce High School D- GA #37/424 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce City
• NCES district ID: 1301440
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,945
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3567
• State rank: #19 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, GA
• County: Bartow County · 68,403 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 44,896
• Household income: $86,581
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9%

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Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.99%
• Current HPI: 302.5848
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.23%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price shown (financial details not included)

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Utilities: Natural gasElectricCentral air
• Home design: Single-family home (spec plan named "The Pierce")
• Construction: New construction (spec)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,627 (living area shown)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes a kitchen (appliance details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas and electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry location not specified