4368 Crescent Dr · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$166,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1950 5,100 sqft lot $120/sqft · 19% below area Est $207k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, space, and great value! This inviting property features a bright and functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, perfect for families, guests, or a home office setup. The updated boiler—just 2 years old—provides efficient, worry-free heating for years to come. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard oasis, complete with a refreshing pool—ideal for relaxing or entertaining during the warmer months. The one-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, while the yard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Showings begin 3/30

Key facts

• One-car garage
• Refreshing pool
• Updated boiler

Tags

• UPDATED BOILER
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• REFRESHING POOL
• ONE-CAR GARAGE
• OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $167k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $161,893 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.32%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,776
• List price: $166,900
• Delta: -19.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1315 Maple Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,412 (+2%)	2mo	$158,000	$112	77
1340 Garrett Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,376 (-1%)	14mo	$214,200	$156	73
4011 Bell St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (-3%)	4mo	$150,000	$111	67
4233 Crescent Dr	0.13mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,275 (-8%)	10mo	$185,000	$145	67
1115 Roselle Ave	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,373 (-1%)	16mo	$182,000	$133	62
3915 Deveaux St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (+5%)	0mo	$120,000	$82	62
3742 Mckoon Ave	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,364 (-2%)	6mo	$101,200	$74	57
406 Roosevelt Ave	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,452 (+4%)	15mo	$290,000	$200	51
3823 Macklem Ave	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,566 (+13%)	2mo	$272,000	$174	48
1112 College Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,246 (-10%)	11mo	$165,000	$132	47
3002 Mckoon Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,329 (-4%)	14mo	$146,500	$110	43
3834 Deveaux St	0.51mi	4/1.0	1,184 (-15%)	12mo	$153,000	$129	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,297
• Equity at exit: $24,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,664
• Equity at exit: $14,430

Cash invested: $46,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,878 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$875
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,516/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,567

Max offer price $166,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $340	-5% $293	+0% $246	+5% $199	+10% $152
Rent	-10% $98	-5% $172	+0% $246	+5% $320	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $288	base $246	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,725
• Closing costs: $5,007
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.75mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, space, and great value! This inviting property features a bright and functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, perfect for families, guests, or a home office setup. The updated boiler—just 2 years old—provides efficient, worry-free heating for years to come. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard oasis, complete with a refreshing pool—ideal for relaxing or entertaining during the warmer months. The one-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, while the yard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Showings begin 3/30

2. 2026-05-07
   price $166,900 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, space, and great value! This inviting property features a bright and functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, perfect for families, guests, or a home office setup. The updated boiler—just 2 years old—provides efficient, worry-free heating for years to come. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard oasis, complete with a refreshing pool—ideal for relaxing or entertaining during the warmer months. The one-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, while the yard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Showings begin 3/30

3. 2026-03-28
   listed $169,900 Active 640-char remark

   Show marketing remark (640 chars)

   Charming and well-maintained 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offering comfort, space, and great value! This inviting property features a bright and functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, perfect for families, guests, or a home office setup. The updated boiler—just 2 years old—provides efficient, worry-free heating for years to come. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard oasis, complete with a refreshing pool—ideal for relaxing or entertaining during the warmer months. The one-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, while the yard offers plenty of space for outdoor activities. Showings begin 3/30

4. 2020-08-21
   soldstatus $120,000 Closed Sale or Rented 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom Cape Cod, located at the end of a cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood. Move in ready! Tastefully updated kitchen (2106) and bathroom (2019). First floor laundry with plenty of storage. Huge living room, large bedrooms with built-ins and many updates including vinyl siding, energy efficient windows, garage roof, electrical and chimney (all new in’ 2016). Outdoors are easy to enjoy with a fully fenced private yard, swimming pool (2018) cement patio, carport, garage and shed. All negotiations will begin June 8th at 9:00 am.

5. 2020-06-09
   status Pending Sale 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom Cape Cod, located at the end of a cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood. Move in ready! Tastefully updated kitchen (2106) and bathroom (2019). First floor laundry with plenty of storage. Huge living room, large bedrooms with built-ins and many updates including vinyl siding, energy efficient windows, garage roof, electrical and chimney (all new in’ 2016). Outdoors are easy to enjoy with a fully fenced private yard, swimming pool (2018) cement patio, carport, garage and shed. All negotiations will begin June 8th at 9:00 am.

6. 2020-06-01
   listed $119,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   Charming 4 bedroom Cape Cod, located at the end of a cul-de-sac in a quiet neighborhood. Move in ready! Tastefully updated kitchen (2106) and bathroom (2019). First floor laundry with plenty of storage. Huge living room, large bedrooms with built-ins and many updates including vinyl siding, energy efficient windows, garage roof, electrical and chimney (all new in’ 2016). Outdoors are easy to enjoy with a fully fenced private yard, swimming pool (2018) cement patio, carport, garage and shed. All negotiations will begin June 8th at 9:00 am.

7. 2009-08-25
   soldstatus $53,000
8. 2009-08-25
   soldstatus $53,000
9. 2005-06-06
   soldstatus $46,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,516 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,516 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,349
• − Property taxes: −$3,516
• − Insurance: −$834
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,803
• − Management: −$1,803
• − Depreciation: −$4,855
• Taxable income: $378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$91
• After-tax cash flow: $2,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+255.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $166,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2020-08-21 Sold (MLS) $120,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-06-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-06-01 Listed $119,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2005-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,516 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.