2411 River Rd #2221 · Wisconsin Dells, WI 53965

$177,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,653 sqft · Condo · 432 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition $107/sqft · 27% below area Est $241k · 27% under $782/mo HOA · 51% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.3/30.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience refined resort living in this rare 2 bed, 2 bath riverside condo at Chula Vista Resort?offering 1,653 sq ft of elegant comfort. One of the largest 2 bedroom units built, this turn-key property features stunning views of the Wisconsin River and pool area, high-end finishes including granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and two inviting fireplaces. . Enjoy a short stroll to waterparks, outdoor pools, fine dining, and all of Chula Vista?s premium amenities. Just minutes from the attractions of downtown Wisconsin Dells. Make it your full-time residence and live the luxury resort lifestyle year-round, or use it as your exclusive weekend retreat with the added benefit of rental income potential.

Key facts

• Premium amenities
• High-end finishes
• Outdoor pools

Tags

• HIGH-END FINISHES
• IN-UNIT LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• SHORT STROLL TO WATERPARKS
• OUTDOOR POOLS
• PREMIUM AMENITIES
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $177k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-783 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $64k (64.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $64k (64.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 1.6% in Wisconsin Dells — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#100 in WI, #2,661 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Wisconsin Dells School District (town): math 44% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #135 of 342 in WI (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Hill Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 1,041 statewide, top 40%, 608 students, 57% FRL); Wisconsin Dells Middle School (math 42% / reading 44%, grade D-, #112 of 383 statewide, top 30%, 387 students, 54% FRL); Wisconsin Dells High (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #349 of 483 statewide, top 75%, 603 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Adams County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 51% of rent.

Recommended offer $63,658 (64.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.97%
• DSCR: 0.16
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $241,407
• List price: $177,000
• Delta: -26.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2411 River Rd #2515	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	6mo	$168,000	$112	80
2411 River Rd #2136	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	6mo	$130,000	$87	79
2411 River Rd #2318	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	11mo	$158,500	$106	75
2411 River Rd #2243	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,784 (+8%)	5mo	$190,000	$107	74
2411 River Rd #2628	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	14mo	$147,000	$98	73
2411 River Rd #2233	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (-9%)	14mo	$170,000	$113	73
2411 River Rd #2459	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,784 (+8%)	11mo	$192,500	$108	68
2411 River Rd #2559	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,784 (+8%)	13mo	$195,000	$109	67
2411 River Rd #2232	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+23%)	11mo	$203,000	$100	57
2411 River Rd #2437	0.19mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+23%)	1mo	$200,000	$98	56
2411 River Rd #2226	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+23%)	12mo	$204,000	$100	56
2411 River Rd #2210	0.00mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,040 (+23%)	13mo	$185,000	$91	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -54.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-78,065
• Equity at exit: $26,391

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.63×
• Total profit: $-130,169
• Equity at exit: $15,304

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Wisconsin: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; Madison / Milwaukee have some local enforcement.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Median asking: $224,900 ($126/sqft)
• Median days on market: 375 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +15.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 53965

• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,547 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$221 /mo · $2,655/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$782
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,538

Max offer price $63,658

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-661	-5% $-722	+0% $-783	+5% $-844	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-905	-5% $-844	+0% $-783	+5% $-722	+10% $-661
Rate	-1.0pp $-694	-0.5pp $-738	base $-783	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-876

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail $782/mo · $9,384/yr condo

• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $177,000 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $177,000 Active 430 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $177,000 Active 429 DOM
4. 2026-09-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 427 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 426 DOM
6. 2026-09-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 425 DOM
7. 2026-09-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 424 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $177,000 Active 423 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $177,000 Active 422 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $177,000 Active 421 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    days on market $177,000 Active 420 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 414 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $177,000 Active 413 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 412 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $177,000 Active 411 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $177,000 Active 407 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $177,000 Active 406 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $177,000 Active 405 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $177,000 Active 404 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $177,000 Active 403 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $177,000 Active 402 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $177,000 Active 401 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $177,000 Active 400 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $177,000 Active 399 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $177,000 Active 398 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $177,000 Active 397 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $177,000 Active 396 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $177,000 Active 395 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $177,000 Active 394 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $177,000 Active 393 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $177,000 Active 392 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $177,000 Active 391 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $177,000 Active 390 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $177,000 Active 389 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $177,000 Active 388 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $177,000 Active 387 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $177,000 Active 386 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $177,000 Active 385 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $177,000 Active 384 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $177,000 Active 383 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $177,000 Active 382 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $177,000 Active 381 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $177,000 Active 378 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $177,000 Active 376 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $177,000 Active 374 DOM
46. 2026-07-25
    days on market $177,000 Active 372 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $177,000 Active 371 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $177,000 Active 370 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $177,000 Active 369 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $177,000 Active 368 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,561
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$2,655
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,485
• − Management: −$1,485
• − HOA: −$9,384
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$12,397
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This turn-key Chula Vista Resort condo is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a luxurious resort lifestyle with stunning views and premium amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Reorganizing furniture for better flow in living areas — Improves functionality and visual appeal ↑
• Both Upgrading window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Spring Hill Elementary F WI #372/1,041 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Wisconsin Dells Middle School D- WI #112/383 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High Wisconsin Dells High F WI #349/483 Nat'l #13,673/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wisconsin Dells School District
• NCES district ID: 5517040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,233
• Composite: 35.91/100
• National rank: #4810
• State rank: #135 of 342 in WI

B Composite livability gradescore 78/100

Livability — Wisconsin Dells

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #2661

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wisconsin Dells, WI
• County: Adams County · 18,560 people
• City population: 10,818
• Metro: Madison, WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,818
• Household income: $66,667
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Adams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,560 people
• By 2030: 17,523 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 14,888 · -19.8%
• By 2050: 12,359 · -33.4%
• By 2075: 8,662 · -53.3%
• By 2100: 6,000 · -67.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Adams

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.8) · D 34.6% · R 60.4% · Other 5.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.2pp toward R · 2008: 18.3pp · 2024: -25.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.8 2020: R+25.7 2016: R+21.8 2012: D+8.7 2008: D+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.85%
• Current HPI: 234.2781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madison, WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$23B
▸Industrial Technology	2	$36B
▸Insurance	1	$36B
▸Professional Services	1	$19B
▸Utilities	1	$9B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$3B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-26 Price Changed $177,000 SCWMLS
• 2025-07-18 Listed $182,000 SCWMLS