1409 N Carlyle Ave · Tyler, TX 75702

$189,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1930 0.35 ac lot $181/sqft · 55% above area Est $177k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BONUS * * * * $6,000 Buyer bonus with acceptable offer. Welcome to this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2-bath home that combines comfort, charm, and an unbeatable location! Filled with an abundance of natural light, this spacious home offers a warm and inviting atmosphere from the moment you step inside. Situated on a rare double lot, this property provides an exceptional amount of fenced outdoor space, perfect for pets, gardening, entertaining, or simply enjoying the freedom of extra room to roam. The welcoming front porch is the ideal place to relax with your morning coffee or unwind after a long day. Inside, you’ll find a thoughtfully updated interior with durable tile and lami

Key facts

• Front porch
• Double lot
• Large kitchen

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• FENCED OUTDOOR SPACE
• FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED INTERIOR
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING
• LARGE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel and paved parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family detached residence; Single story
• Construction: Wood siding; Aluminum/metal roof; Has home warranty
• Exterior features: Front porch; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-930/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.5% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Tyler ISD (urban): math 39% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #449 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Douglas El (math 45% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 585 students, 97% FRL); Moore Mst Magnet School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,113 students, 87% FRL); Tyler H S (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,228 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,164 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 66% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,330 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.75%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,736
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: 7.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
319 Granville	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,067 (+2%)	15mo	$115,000	$108	65
104 E Cedar St	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,134 (+8%)	8mo	$174,900	$154	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-36,808
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-42,856
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75702

• Home prices YoY: -5.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,187/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,591

Max offer price $176,211

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $30	-5% $-24	+0% $-77	+5% $-131	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-136	+0% $-77	+5% $-19	+10% $40
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-29	base $-77	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
501 W Vance St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	45d	1	0.65mi
425 E Oakwood St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,540	$1.19	45d	1	0.66mi
809 W Harmony St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,500	$1.15	45d	1	0.87mi
826 W Franklin St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,550	$1.22	15d	1	0.89mi
411 N Fuller Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	45d	1	1.00mi
800 W 25th St Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$950	$1.16	23d	1	1.07mi
819 W 26th St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$995	$0.83	23d	1	1.17mi
821 W 26th St Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$995	$0.83	23d	1	1.17mi
311 N Virginia Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,395	$1.34	23d	1	1.37mi
211 Patricia Ct Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	45d	1	1.40mi
3115 N Grand Ave Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,575	$1.20	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $189,900 Active 1973-char remark
2. 2026-04-02
   price $179,900
3. 2026-04-02
   price $179,990
4. 2026-03-27
   price $184,900
5. 2026-03-24
   price $185,000
6. 2026-03-19
   price $189,900
7. 2026-03-19
   price $195,000
8. 2026-03-19
   price $189,000
9. 2026-03-09
   price $195,000
10. 2024-09-16
    soldstatus
11. 2022-02-03
    price $1,595
12. 2000-01-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,187 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,289/yr (+$107/mo · 58.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,187
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$4,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $89/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tyler ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,090
• Composite: 32.69/100
• National rank: #5650
• State rank: #449 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tyler, TX
• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• City population: 127,842
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,927
• Household income: $51,564
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Black 37% White 12% Two or more races 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 207.1573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.27%
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11806.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2026-05-23 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-05-12 Listed $189,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $179,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $179,990 GTAR
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $184,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $185,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $189,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $195,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $189,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $195,000 GTAR
• 2024-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-03 Price Changed $1,595 RENT.
• 2000-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,187 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.