406 Rochester Ave · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition 7,840 sqft lot $33/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

Key facts

• Chain link fencing
• City water
• Close to lmu

Tags

• CHAIN LINK FENCING
• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER
• CLOSE TO LMU

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.5% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Middlesboro Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 453 students, 83% FRL); Middlesboro Middle School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #156 of 217 statewide, top 74%, 281 students, 82% FRL); Middlesboro High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #222 of 254 statewide, top 89%, 352 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 63% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $40k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.90%
• DSCR: 3.89
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $103,949
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -61.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Gloucester Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-4%)	2mo	$169,900	$143	71
411 S 29th St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	14mo	$235,000	$188	62
807 Exeter Ave	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-2%)	24mo	$202,500	$169	60
921 Winchester Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	4mo	$105,000	$78	59
708 Ilchester Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,312 (+7%)	7mo	$175,000	$133	55
907 Doncaster Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+14%)	2mo	$240,000	$172	55
114 E Rochester Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,066 (-13%)	21mo	$137,694	$129	43
712 Balmoral Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-11%)	20mo	$45,000	$41	35
713 Gloucester Ave	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,112 (-10%)	24mo	$110,000	$99	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $17,780
• Equity at exit: $19,355

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $46,114
• Equity at exit: $30,939

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $142,500 ($130/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -34.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $278/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $191	+0% $179	+5% $168	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $136	+0% $179	+5% $222	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $189	base $179	+0.5pp $169	+1.0pp $158

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $40,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-05-06
    status Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

11. 2026-04-04
    status Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

12. 2026-02-04
    historical Contingent 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

13. 2026-02-04
    historical 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

14. 2026-01-21
    price $44,000 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

15. 2026-01-07
    listed $54,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    Cottage style, 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home with chain link fencing in the city limits of Middlesboro KY. PVA records show 0.18 of an acre, city water, city sewer. Home needs some work but would make a great permanent home or use as a rental. Close to LMU and all the beauty Southeastern KY offers! 5 minutes to the Cumberland Gap National Park, shopping and more! Buyer to verify all property information.

16. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $278 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $344 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$66/yr (+$5/mo · 23.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$278
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $1,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $1,691/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $30,750–$55,350 screening

This home is in fair condition with some visible wear and tear. It needs moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — No roof visible in photos
• Major Hvac (hvac) — No HVAC unit visible in photos
• Major Windows (windows) — No windows visible in photos
• Major Electrical (electrical) — No electrical panel visible in photos
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — No plumbing fixtures visible in photos
• Major Exterior (exterior) — No exterior walls or siding visible in photos

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are cluttered and appear to be in poor condition.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — The bathrooms are cluttered and appear to be in poor condition.
• Moderate Exterior siding — The exterior siding appears to be in fair condition, but there are some visible signs of wear and tear.
• Major Flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major Interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major Landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition, with overgrown grass and debris on the ground.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls and cabinets — Painting the interior walls and cabinets can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Replace the flooring — Replacing the flooring can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard work — Landscaping and yard work can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑
• Both Clean and organize the kitchen and bathrooms — Cleaning and organizing the kitchen and bathrooms can improve the overall appearance and value of the home. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Middlesboro Elementary School F KY #572/676 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Middlesboro Middle School F KY #156/217 Nat'l #9,290/14,009 High Middlesboro High School F KY #222/254 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• County: Bell · 24,501 people
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698
• Household income: $30,980
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-04-04 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-04 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $44,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $54,000 ImagineMLS
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2020): $278 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.