87 W Pine Rd · Staatsburg, NY 12580

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 732 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1962 1.60 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bungalow in need of repairs but with lots of privacy. This home has three small bedrooms, good size living room and a kitchen with a large dining area. The property is located on a 1.6 acre lot in a very quiet neighborhood. Great opportunity to bring this home back to life and make it your weekend getaway.

Key facts

• 1.6 acre lot
• Quiet neighborhood
• 1.6 acre lot

Tags

• 1.6 ACRE LOT
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.5% in Staatsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hyde Park Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #316 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Park Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 476 students, 50% FRL); Haviland Middle School (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #413 of 729 statewide, top 57%, 759 students, 59% FRL); Franklin D Roosevelt Senior High School (math 93% / reading 90%, grade A+, #197 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,136 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 620 units permitted in Dutchess County in 2024 (242 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dutchess County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.58%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,203
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $68,927
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12580

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,429/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $719	-5% $679	+0% $640	+5% $600	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $459	-5% $550	+0% $640	+5% $730	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $710	-0.5pp $675	base $640	+0.5pp $603	+1.0pp $566

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2025-12-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-29
   historical
3. 2025-09-13
   price $140,000
4. 2025-09-13
   status Active
5. 2025-08-31
   historical
6. 2025-06-16
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,429 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,429 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$4,429
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $5,938
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,425
• After-tax cash flow: $6,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hyde Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3615180
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $68,932
• Composite: 46.59/100
• National rank: #2421
• State rank: #316 of 590 in NY

Livability — Staatsburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #11896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,169

Population outlook (Dutchess County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 291,768 people
• By 2030: 287,131 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 274,881 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 259,971 · -10.9%
• By 2075: 235,366 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 208,786 · -28.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dutchess

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.4) · D 52.7% · R 47.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: 5.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.4 2020: D+9.6 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+6.6 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.18%
• Current HPI: 269.4278
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-16 Listed $160,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,429 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.