4538 SW 44th Ln · Gainesville, FL 32608

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1987 2,178 sqft lot $230/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe and Butler Plaza, with bus lines to UF and Shands, yet enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A new roof was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

Key facts

• Bus lines to uf
• Near butler plaza
• New roof

Tags

• NEAR CELEBRATION POINTE
• NEAR BUTLER PLAZA
• BUS LINES TO UF
• BUS LINES TO SHANDS
• ENCLOSED BY MATURE TREES
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $399 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Idylwild Elementary School (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 533 students, 78% FRL); Kanapaha Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.68%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $5,161
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $37,235
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32608

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,993/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$230
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,503

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $434	+0% $399	+5% $364	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $240	-5% $320	+0% $399	+5% $478	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $431	base $399	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4781 SW 36th Rd Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$2,340	$2.06	15d	61	0.48mi
6499 SW 44th Way Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	900	$2,162	$2.40	15d	13	1.25mi
4455 SW 34th St Gainesville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1033	$1,830	$1.77	15d	28	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $230 · $2,760/yr

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $125,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $130,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-04-22
    price $145,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe and Butler Plaza, with bus lines to UF and Shands, yet enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A new roof was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

18. 2026-03-18
    listed $150,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe and Butler Plaza, with bus lines to UF and Shands, yet enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A new roof was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

19. 2025-05-20
    soldstatus $150,000
20. 2025-05-16
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

21. 2025-04-25
    status Pending 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

22. 2025-04-01
    price $156,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

23. 2025-03-21
    price $160,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

24. 2025-03-07
    price $162,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

25. 2025-02-19
    price $164,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

26. 2025-01-27
    price $166,900 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

27. 2024-12-31
    listed $167,900 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    This beautiful and well-maintained home in the Haystacks community is ready and waiting for you! This home offers convenience with nature and privacy, located near Celebration Pointe, Butler Plaza, and bus lines to UF and Shands but enclosed by mature trees and serenity. A NEW ROOF was added in 2024, and the kitchen has also been updated. This home also features indoor laundry and a peaceful screened-in porch.

28. 2024-12-18
    historical
29. 2024-11-12
    price $169,900
30. 2024-11-05
    price $173,900
31. 2024-09-18
    listed $174,900 Active
32. 2024-06-24
    historical
33. 2024-05-21
    price $189,500
34. 2024-05-13
    listed $195,000 Active
35. 2023-01-03
    soldstatus $140,000
36. 1997-09-02
    soldstatus $51,900
37. 1995-03-07
    soldstatus $39,000
38. 1995-03-02
    soldstatus $39,000
39. 1995-01-11
    listed $40,900
40. 1987-10-01
    soldstatus $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,993 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,993
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,927
• − Management: −$1,927
• − HOA: −$2,760
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $3,220
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$773
• After-tax cash flow: $4,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 54,566
• Household income: $61,588
• Rent vs Own: 58.7% rent · 41.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 4709.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 13% Asian 12% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.91%
• Current HPI: 253.0629
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+303.9% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-16 Sold (MLS) $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $156,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $162,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $164,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Price Changed $166,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-31 Listed $167,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $173,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-18 Listed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $189,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-13 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $51,900 Public Records
• 1995-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records
• 1995-03-02 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-11 Listed $40,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $35,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,993 · +83.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.