1606 Stone Lake Dr · Missouri City, TX 77489

$257,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1976 0.30 ac lot $139/sqft · 26% above area Est $258k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS: Beautiful updated four-bedroom, two-bath home offers over 2,338 sq ft of comfortable living space with modern finishes throughout. The open layout is perfect for everyday Spacious Living Room great for Entertaining, Big Back Yard. Conveniently located near local schools, parks, shopping, and dining. Tenant Occupied, $1,795 monthly rent.

Key facts

• Near shopping
• Big back yard
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• BIG BACK YARD
• NEAR LOCAL SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS
• NEAR SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure available
• HOA & community: Community managed by Marshall Management; Annual association fee of $350

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1976; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on the first floor)
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (17 x 14); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (10 x 10, 10 x 10, 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hunters Glen El (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 240 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $361 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,533 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.52%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,912
• List price: $257,000
• Delta: -0.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1607 Bent Oak Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,854 (0%)	8mo	$240,000	$129	74
1635 Castle Creek Drive Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,630 (-12%)	6mo	$257,000	$158	70
1810 Kingman Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,842 (-1%)	6mo	$169,900	$92	66
2211 N Heatherwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,805 (-3%)	5mo	$268,900	$149	57
1223 Gentle Bend Dr	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,693 (-9%)	3mo	$249,900	$148	57
614 Tramwood Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-10%)	1mo	$199,995	$120	56
619 Fawnwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-10%)	2mo	$240,000	$144	56
1222 New Tree Ln	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,644 (-11%)	3mo	$169,900	$103	52
710 Fawnwood Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,661 (-10%)	9mo	$199,000	$120	52
1922 Lauren Pl	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,966 (+6%)	6mo	$299,999	$153	50
2003 Long Barrel Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-14%)	10mo	$266,225	$168	47
2123 Laurel Oak Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	2,117 (+14%)	11mo	$274,999	$130	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-40,489
• Equity at exit: $67,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-56,563
• Equity at exit: $75,886

Cash invested: $71,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,348
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,056/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,517

Max offer price $198,533

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-185	-5% $-258	+0% $-331	+5% $-404	+10% $-476
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-414	+0% $-331	+5% $-248	+10% $-165
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-266	base $-331	+0.5pp $-398	+1.0pp $-465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,250
• Closing costs: $7,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	0.57mi
2222 Mountshire Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,700	$1.19	22d	1	0.75mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	0.75mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	45d	1	0.78mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	0.86mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	22d	1	0.88mi
15113 Chasehill Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2286	$2,350	$1.03	45d	1	1.15mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	1.20mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	1.34mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.35mi
2910 Fawn Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,220	$0.95	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $257,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $257,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $257,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $257,000 Active 349-char remark
16. 2025-12-29
    historical $1,795
17. 2025-12-27
    historical
18. 2025-12-25
    listed $274,900 Active
19. 2025-12-17
    status Pending
20. 2025-12-16
    historical
21. 2025-12-02
    listed $1,795
22. 2025-12-01
    historical $1,895
23. 2025-11-15
    listed $1,895
24. 2025-11-15
    historical $1,995
25. 2025-11-04
    listed $279,900 Active
26. 2025-10-19
    listed $1,995
27. 2025-10-19
    historical $2,095
28. 2025-09-30
    listed $2,095
29. 2025-09-29
    historical $2,195
30. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,195
31. 2025-09-25
    historical $2,295
32. 2025-08-28
    price $2,295
33. 2025-08-27
    listed $2,300
34. 2025-08-26
    historical
35. 2025-08-06
    price $299,900
36. 2025-07-09
    price $324,900
37. 2025-07-09
    listed $324,900 Active
38. 2025-07-09
    historical
39. 2025-07-09
    listed $249,900 Active
40. 2024-03-19
    historical $2,300
41. 2024-03-02
    historical $2,300
42. 2024-03-02
    listed $2,300
43. 2024-02-28
    listed $2,400
44. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus
45. 2023-11-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,056 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,056 · $505/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,396
• − Property taxes: −$6,056
• − Insurance: −$1,285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$7,476
• Taxable loss: −$8,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,019
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10608.3% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Rental Removed $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-25 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed for Rent $1,795 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Rental Removed $1,895 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Listed for Rent $1,895 HARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Rental Removed $1,995 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed for Rent $1,995 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Rental Removed $2,095 HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed for Rent $2,095 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Rental Removed $2,195 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,195 HARMLS
• 2025-09-25 Rental Removed $2,295 HARMLS
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $2,295 HARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-08-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $324,900 HARMLS
• 2024-03-19 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-03-02 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-03-02 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Listed for Rent $2,400 HARMLS
• 2023-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,056 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.