22323 Cotton Creek Dr #504 · Gulf Shores, AL 36542

$2,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Townhouse · 13 Days on market

Built 2007

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

newly remodeled, chefs kitchen has granite counter tops Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Granite counter tops
• Chefs kitchen
• Garage

Tags

• CHEFS KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community amenities: outdoor pool, BBQ area, gazebo; No transfer fee

Exterior

• Parking: Single covered garage space; Has garage
• Utilities: Gulf Shores Utilities
• Home design: Townhouse; Attached property; One level; Resale
• Construction: Hardboard construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built as condominium
• Exterior features: Community pool; BBQ area; Gazebo; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating
• Interior features: No fireplace; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$400,140) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $835 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Cap rate 763.0% vs local median 0.2% in Gulf Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#61 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Gulf Shores Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #63 of 627 statewide, top 10%, 1,062 students, 44% FRL); Gulf Shores Middle School (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #29 of 257 statewide, top 12%, 589 students, 48% FRL); Gulf Shores High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 799 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $560 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 80.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 763.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2702.67%
• DSCR: 121.25
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $400,140
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22323 Cotton Creek Dr #501	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,131 (-6%)	1mo	$279,900	$247	89
22323 Cotton Creek Dr #204	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,131 (-6%)	11mo	$195,000	$172	79

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 97.94×
• Total profit: $54,286
• Equity at exit: $298

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 218.37×
• Total profit: $121,725
• Equity at exit: $173

Cash invested: $560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36542

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $30/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $835

Break-even live

Break-even rent $557

Max offer price $2,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $836	-5% $835	+0% $835	+5% $834	+10% $833
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $771	+0% $835	+5% $898	+10% $962
Rate	-1.0pp $836	-0.5pp $835	base $835	+0.5pp $834	+1.0pp $834

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $500
• Closing costs: $60
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22323 Cotton Creek Dr Gulf Shores, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	22d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $2,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $2,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $2,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $2,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $2,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $2,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-05-28
   listed $2,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 91% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$112
• − Property taxes: −$30
• − Insurance: −$5,128
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$58
• Taxable income: $10,941
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,626
• After-tax cash flow: $7,391/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Gulf Shores

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #8945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Shores, AL
• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 18,906
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,906
• Household income: $79,639
• Rent vs Own: 27.4% rent · 72.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.95%
• Current HPI: 257.6494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.71%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $2,000 BCAR