6029 Blue Paloma Ct · Memphis, FL 34221

$348,740

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,389 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $146/sqft · 13% below area Est $400k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home divides space for optimal tranquility. The first floor showcases an open design that encompasses the dining room, kitchen and living room for simplified family living and entertaining. Nearby, the owner's suite is separate from the upstairs bedrooms and features a private bathroom. The second level hosts four additional bedrooms and a versatile loft.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 25 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $116 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (8.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.1% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1580 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,197/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $319,728 (8.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,700
• List price: $348,740
• Delta: -12.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5643 Skylight Way 5643 Skylight Way	1.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,323 (-3%)	5mo	$409,000	$176	49
1824 Soaring Vida St	1.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,323 (-3%)	5mo	$395,000	$170	49
2814 58th Way E	0.90mi	5/3.5	2,227 (-7%)	1mo	$397,900	$179	49
3249 Osteen Cv	1.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,454 (+3%)	7mo	$406,300	$166	48
2862 89th Street Cir E	1.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,412 (+1%)	12mo	$399,900	$166	47
3409 77th Ct E	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-11%)	15mo	$375,000	$177	30
7501 37th Ave E	0.82mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-11%)	12mo	$409,000	$193	29
2504 58th Cir E	0.90mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,109 (-12%)	12mo	$409,000	$194	28
3712 76th St E	0.88mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,121 (-11%)	14mo	$415,000	$196	28
2634 58th Cir E	0.78mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,109 (-12%)	15mo	$418,900	$199	26
4114 70th Street Cir E	1.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,997 (-16%)	9mo	$335,000	$168	25
6332 35th Avenue Cir E	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,074 (-13%)	13mo	$455,000	$219	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-58,458
• Equity at exit: $51,998

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,424
• Equity at exit: $30,153

Cash invested: $97,647 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.8 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $332,990 ($159/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: 62% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1580
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,829
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,231/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,051

Max offer price $348,740

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $236	+0% $116	+5% $-5	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-11	+0% $116	+5% $242	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $291	-0.5pp $204	base $116	+0.5pp $25	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,185
• Closing costs: $10,462
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	78d	1	0.02mi
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	77d	1	0.02mi
6011 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3326	$3,400	$1.02	9d	1	0.02mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	119d	1	1.13mi
2305 50th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1996	$2,545	$1.28	62d	1	1.26mi
2706 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	82d	1	1.28mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,800	$0.85	93d	1	1.32mi
4124 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,366	$1.22	4d	1	1.39mi
8518 41st Ave E Palmetto, FL	6.0	3.0	3086	$3,216	$1.04	82d	1	1.40mi
4235 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,366	$1.22	4d	1	1.42mi
4218 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,516	$1.30	9d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $348,740 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $348,740 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,340 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $349,340 Active 23 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,535
• − Property taxes: −$5,231
• − Insurance: −$1,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,069
• − Management: −$3,069
• − Depreciation: −$10,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $2,452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,945–$35,835 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is ready for a new owner or tenant with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the home ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B