15134 Austin Rd · Willis, TX 77378

$158,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 832 sqft · SingleFamily · 79 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,148 sqft lot $191/sqft · at area comps Est $165k · at est. $7/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy quiet country living in this cute tiny home. Open first floor plan allows entertaining with ease. Great storage under stairway with a barn door. 3 bedrooms up. Primary bedroom has adjacent primary bath with shower. Washer/dryer included. Large backyard with plenty of space for anything you would like.

Key facts

• 5,148 sq ft lot
• Built 2021
• Listed 79 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D+.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 710 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,990 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,892
• List price: $158,500
• Delta: -3.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15149 Austin Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	800 (-4%)	3mo	$159,000	$199	88
15229 Travis Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	900 (+8%)	8mo	$150,000	$167	78
4089 Ben Milam	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	896 (+8%)	21mo	$167,800	$187	51
14862 Burnett Ln	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (-13%)	22mo	$149,900	$207	40
—	0.68mi	3/2.0	924 (+11%)	12mo	$227,500	$246	39
4568 Ben Milam Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	725 (-13%)	16mo	$146,900	$203	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,221
• Equity at exit: $23,633

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,569
• Equity at exit: $13,704

Cash invested: $44,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 710
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,648 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$831
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$198 /mo · $2,378/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $158,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $254	+0% $200	+5% $145	+10% $90
Rent	-10% $69	-5% $135	+0% $200	+5% $265	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $240	base $200	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $117

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,625
• Closing costs: $4,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,500 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,500 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,500 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,500 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,500 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,500 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $158,500 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $158,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $158,500 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $158,500 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,500 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $158,500 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Enjoy quiet country living in this cute tiny home. Open first floor plan allows entertaining with ease. Great storage under stairway with a barn door. 3 bedrooms up. Primary bedroom has adjacent primary bath with shower. Washer/dryer included. Large backyard with plenty of space for anything you would like.

15. 2026-03-31
    listed $165,500 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Enjoy quiet country living in this cute tiny home. Open first floor plan allows entertaining with ease. Great storage under stairway with a barn door. 3 bedrooms up. Primary bedroom has adjacent primary bath with shower. Washer/dryer included. Large backyard with plenty of space for anything you would like.

16. 2021-11-30
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2021-06-14
    status Pending
18. 2021-06-03
    listed $142,027 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,878
• − Property taxes: −$2,378
• − Insurance: −$792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,611
• Taxable loss: −$130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$31
• After-tax cash flow: $2,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $158,500 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $165,500 HARMLS
• 2021-11-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-06-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-06-03 Listed $142,027 HARMLS