2009 Blake Rd SW · South Valley, NM 87105

$219,900

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1946 9,540 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A spacious lot with two separate structures and total improvement potential in one structure ADU/guest house area, offering a unique setup for renovation, multigenerational living, studio space, or future use. Property features gated entry, tile flooring, courtyard-style outdoor space, mature shade trees, and ample off-street parking. Property needs repairs and is being sold AS-IS. Owner Broker

Key facts

• 9,540 sq ft lot
• Built 1946
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property consists of 2 total units across 2 buildings

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Single-story; Proposed new construction
• Construction: Stucco and wood siding construction; Builder listed as unknown; Year built to be determined (public records source indicated)
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.22 acres with dimensions 65 x 152 x 64 x 138; Zoned A-1; Property proposed and to be built (new construction)

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate, tile, vinyl and wood flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Laminate, tile, vinyl and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in South Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#113 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute C-, employment D, schools F.
• Albuquerque Public Schools (urban): math 51% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #3 of 29 in NM (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1,316 units permitted in Bernalillo County in 2024 (546 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,092/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($56k/yr) (locally 1175% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,166 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-17,962
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $6,953
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87105

• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,551/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $403	-5% $341	+0% $278	+5% $216	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $113	-5% $196	+0% $278	+5% $361	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $334	base $278	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 399-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $219,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,759 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: +$208/yr (+$17/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$1,551
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$68
• After-tax cash flow: $3,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albuquerque Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500060
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 45.00%
• Median HH income: $48,151
• Composite: 53.29/100
• National rank: #1487
• State rank: #3 of 29 in NM

Livability — South Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #19456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Valley, NM
• County: Bernalillo County · 647,165 people
• City population: 54,215
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 54,367
• Household income: $55,644
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Bernalillo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 704,528 people
• By 2030: 711,723 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 714,522 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 709,274 · +0.7%
• By 2075: 680,015 · -3.5%
• By 2100: 619,879 · -12.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 34% White 14% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 45%

Political lean MEDSL · Bernalillo

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.2% · R 38.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.3pp no change · 2008: 21.4pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+24.4 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+21.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.16%
• Current HPI: 269.4587
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $219,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,551 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.