2870 Red Diamond · Leming, TX 78264

$186,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 158 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $185k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Versatile loft area

Tags

• FIRST-LEVEL OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,568 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pleasanton ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #470 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 329 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,559 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,577
• List price: $186,999
• Delta: 1.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2862 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$188,999	$112	99
2826 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$186,999	$111	99
2846 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	2mo	$187,999	$111	98
2838 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	2mo	$190,999	$113	98
2887 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	3mo	$179,999	$106	98
2822 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	3mo	$188,999	$112	98
3919 Garcia Grv	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-5%)	5mo	$199,999	$125	80
2816 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	1mo	$199,999	$105	79
2891 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	1mo	$198,999	$105	79
2879 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	3mo	$202,999	$107	78
2867 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	3mo	$187,999	$99	77
2859 Red Diamond	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+12%)	5mo	$209,999	$111	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $41,527
• Equity at exit: $94,212

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $123,394
• Equity at exit: $153,614

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78264

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,667

Max offer price $186,999

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-05
   price $186,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $206,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-10
   price $211,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-09
   price $185,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-31
   price $186,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-02-11
   price $211,999 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2025-12-11
   listed $214,999 New 446-char remark

   Show marketing remark (446 chars)

   The Tilley - This new two-story home features a comfortable first-level owner's suite, complete with a full bathroom and walk-in closet to create a luxurious retreat. A nearby open-concept layout provides simple transitions and multitasking. Three additional bedrooms can be found on the second floor next to a versatile and inviting loft area. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$935
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$1,256
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$302
• After-tax cash flow: $2,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a comfortable living space with a good layout and potential for value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase the home's value.
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient fixtures can increase the home's value. ↑
• Both HVAC system — A new or well-maintained HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pleasanton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835190
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,885
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5843
• State rank: #470 of 826 in TX

Livability — Leming

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1568
• US rank: #26744

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,702

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 35% White 17% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 73%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Greek 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 51% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.94%
• Current HPI: 298.8446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $186,999 LERA
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $206,999 LERA
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $211,999 LERA
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $185,999 LERA
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $186,999 LERA
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $211,999 LERA
• 2025-12-11 Listed $214,999 LERA