821 Mckinley Ave · Harwick, PA 15049

$54,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,375 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1935 5,688 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is great for a solo individual or a family. The property it self has a drive way which it can hold up to 3 cars. When you walk in the house you are greeted with a foyer room, once inside you will walk into a spacious living room that has laminated flooring. Also on the main floor of the house the dining room has a built in china cabinet and with a glass block window view. lastly on the main floor is the kitchen which has a washer and dry room. With a working fridge, stove, sink, and ceiling fan. Too go on the second story of the house you will have to walk up a L -shaped carpet stairway. The second story of the house has 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. The master bedroom has a skylight and dimmer lights. The bathroom has a tub with a shower, toilet, sink, and for view its threw a octagon window. Lastly the basement its cemented on the floor and the walls are stone brick it comes with a furnace, water heater. The back yard is fenced in with a great view and a lot of privacy

Key facts

• Maintained bath
• Maintained kitchen
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• MAINTAINED KITCHEN
• MAINTAINED BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,052 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, schools D-.
• Allegheny Valley SD (suburban): math 29% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #341 of 539 in PA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $70 of equity ($373 loan paydown + $-303 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $53,190 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.16%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $244,750
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
814 Mckinley Ave	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,280 (-7%)	13mo	$123,000	$96	74
1307 Fairmont St	0.22mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,416 (+3%)	6mo	$270,000	$191	67
1511 Sherman St	0.38mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,338 (-3%)	1mo	$295,000	$220	64
1004 Royal Ct	0.49mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,381 (+0%)	5mo	$239,400	$173	61
1305 Sherman St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,430 (+4%)	10mo	$255,000	$178	61
322 Stoneybrooke Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (-5%)	13mo	$310,450	$238	56
108 Hill Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+6%)	4mo	$180,000	$124	51
132 N Atlantic Ave	0.63mi	2/1.0	1,550 (+13%)	1mo	$84,900	$55	48
132 Murrayhill Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,348 (-2%)	17mo	$223,000	$165	43
111 S Atlantic Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-13%)	6mo	$170,000	$142	34
1539 Linden St	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,222 (-11%)	19mo	$240,000	$196	34
122 School Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,279 (-7%)	16mo	$265,000	$207	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $43,707
• Equity at exit: $14,182

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.86×
• Total profit: $103,777
• Equity at exit: $15,893

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15049

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Cherry Ln Cheswick, PA	2.0	2.0	1168	$1,400	$1.20	21d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   listed $54,000 Active
3. 2025-04-16
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 2022-10-07
   price $75,000 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This property is great for a solo individual or a family. The property it self has a drive way which it can hold up to 3 cars. When you walk in the house you are greeted with a foyer room, once inside you will walk into a spacious living room that has laminated flooring. Also on the main floor of the house the dining room has a built in china cabinet and with a glass block window view. lastly on the main floor is the kitchen which has a washer and dry room. With a working fridge, stove, sink, and ceiling fan. Too go on the second story of the house you will have to walk up a L -shaped carpet stairway. The second story of the house has 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. The master bedroom has a skylight and dimmer lights. The bathroom has a tub with a shower, toilet, sink, and for view its threw a octagon window. Lastly the basement its cemented on the floor and the walls are stone brick it comes with a furnace, water heater. The back yard is fenced in with a great view and a lot of privacy

5. 2022-08-26
   listed $145,000 Active 993-char remark

   Show marketing remark (993 chars)

   This property is great for a solo individual or a family. The property it self has a drive way which it can hold up to 3 cars. When you walk in the house you are greeted with a foyer room, once inside you will walk into a spacious living room that has laminated flooring. Also on the main floor of the house the dining room has a built in china cabinet and with a glass block window view. lastly on the main floor is the kitchen which has a washer and dry room. With a working fridge, stove, sink, and ceiling fan. Too go on the second story of the house you will have to walk up a L -shaped carpet stairway. The second story of the house has 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom. The master bedroom has a skylight and dimmer lights. The bathroom has a tub with a shower, toilet, sink, and for view its threw a octagon window. Lastly the basement its cemented on the floor and the walls are stone brick it comes with a furnace, water heater. The back yard is fenced in with a great view and a lot of privacy

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,344
• − Management: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $8,436
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $6,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegheny Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4202190
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $48,049
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5037
• State rank: #341 of 539 in PA

Livability — Harwick

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1052
• US rank: #11823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harwick, PA
• City population: 919
• Population (ZIP): 919

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Current HPI: 173.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-62.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $54,000 West Penn MLS
• 2025-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $75,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-08-26 Listed $145,000 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,910 · +22.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.