529 Colonial Park Dr · Larkfield-Wikiup, CA 95403

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1969 Fair condition Est $209k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Look no further as this is the home you have been wishing for. From the extra long driveway to accommodate twice the amount of cars as a typical mobile home lot, to the generously sized bedrooms, each with an adjoining bathroom (one en suite), to the spacious kitchen with ample counter and storage space for the cook, a large enclosed porch with gas stove and natural light throughout, to the private patio and its surrounding grassy areas for your 4-legged friend or to convert to herbal, vegetable or flower gardens, and complete with multiple outdoor storage sheds and cabinets (one with a workshop), this home has it all! Home will need some repairs and refreshing (see disclosures) and will be sold as is. Cash buyer(s) only.

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Private yard
• Two storage sheds

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE YARD
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No association; Located in a senior community; Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; Attached, covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Centurion make/manufacturer; Skirted with vinyl
• Construction: Double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Backyard; Court; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Shower stall(s); Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Evaporative cooler; Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Dining room; Family room; Living room; Sun room
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 2.1% in Larkfield-Wikiup — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 200 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.17%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $209,304
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
468 Colonial Park Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	2mo	$210,000	$156	91
45 Colonial Park Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	8mo	$259,000	$193	82
16 Ellie Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	16mo	$119,000	$83	72
19 Ellie Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (-5%)	11mo	$240,000	$185	71
152 Colonial Park Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-6%)	20mo	$196,000	$152	70
612 Colonial Park Dr	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	10mo	$165,000	$138	68
428 Colonial Park Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+5%)	23mo	$170,000	$118	66
5229 Whispering Creek Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-2%)	3mo	$205,000	$153	62
45 Arthur Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (-4%)	23mo	$255,000	$194	60
5241 Whispering Crk	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-10%)	2mo	$191,000	$156	54
5304 Huckleberry Way	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+3%)	18mo	$200,000	$142	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $52,573
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $122,256
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 200
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,174/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $1,324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,425	-5% $1,375	+0% $1,324	+5% $1,274	+10% $1,224
Rent	-10% $1,092	-5% $1,208	+0% $1,324	+5% $1,441	+10% $1,557
Rate	-1.0pp $1,397	-0.5pp $1,361	base $1,324	+0.5pp $1,287	+1.0pp $1,249

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 E Shiloh Rd Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	1783	$4,100	$2.30	44d	1	0.56mi
193 Airport Blvd E Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	967	$2,760	$2.85	13d	1	0.87mi
5256 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 31 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	14d	1	0.95mi
5252 Old Redwood Hwy Unit 20 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	14d	1	0.95mi
5223 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$3,200	$3.50	13d	1	1.10mi
5209 Old Redwood Hwy Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1014	$2,450	$2.42	23d	1	1.15mi
5365 Arnica Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1699	$3,450	$2.03	22d	1	1.19mi
1145 Shiloh Rd Windsor, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	776	$3,828	$4.93	8d	14	1.34mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $144,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $144,900 Active
18. 2022-11-08
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Look no further as this is the home you have been wishing for. From the extra long driveway to accommodate twice the amount of cars as a typical mobile home lot, to the generously sized bedrooms, each with an adjoining bathroom (one en suite), to the spacious kitchen with ample counter and storage space for the cook, a large enclosed porch with gas stove and natural light throughout, to the private patio and its surrounding grassy areas for your 4-legged friend or to convert to herbal, vegetable or flower gardens, and complete with multiple outdoor storage sheds and cabinets (one with a workshop), this home has it all! Home will need some repairs and refreshing (see disclosures) and will be sold as is. Cash buyer(s) only.

19. 2022-11-04
    status Pending 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Look no further as this is the home you have been wishing for. From the extra long driveway to accommodate twice the amount of cars as a typical mobile home lot, to the generously sized bedrooms, each with an adjoining bathroom (one en suite), to the spacious kitchen with ample counter and storage space for the cook, a large enclosed porch with gas stove and natural light throughout, to the private patio and its surrounding grassy areas for your 4-legged friend or to convert to herbal, vegetable or flower gardens, and complete with multiple outdoor storage sheds and cabinets (one with a workshop), this home has it all! Home will need some repairs and refreshing (see disclosures) and will be sold as is. Cash buyer(s) only.

20. 2022-11-02
    historical Contingent (No Show) 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Look no further as this is the home you have been wishing for. From the extra long driveway to accommodate twice the amount of cars as a typical mobile home lot, to the generously sized bedrooms, each with an adjoining bathroom (one en suite), to the spacious kitchen with ample counter and storage space for the cook, a large enclosed porch with gas stove and natural light throughout, to the private patio and its surrounding grassy areas for your 4-legged friend or to convert to herbal, vegetable or flower gardens, and complete with multiple outdoor storage sheds and cabinets (one with a workshop), this home has it all! Home will need some repairs and refreshing (see disclosures) and will be sold as is. Cash buyer(s) only.

21. 2022-10-26
    listed $120,000 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Look no further as this is the home you have been wishing for. From the extra long driveway to accommodate twice the amount of cars as a typical mobile home lot, to the generously sized bedrooms, each with an adjoining bathroom (one en suite), to the spacious kitchen with ample counter and storage space for the cook, a large enclosed porch with gas stove and natural light throughout, to the private patio and its surrounding grassy areas for your 4-legged friend or to convert to herbal, vegetable or flower gardens, and complete with multiple outdoor storage sheds and cabinets (one with a workshop), this home has it all! Home will need some repairs and refreshing (see disclosures) and will be sold as is. Cash buyer(s) only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,330
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$2,174
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,826
• − Management: −$2,826
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $14,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,467
• After-tax cash flow: $12,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn and dated appearance.
• Moderate Kitchen countertops — Worn and dated appearance.
• Moderate Bathroom walls — Peeling paint and dated appearance.
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration and wear.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance.
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — New cabinets and countertops can greatly enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal.
• Resale Replace bathroom walls — Fresh walls can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality.
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn and dated appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen countertops · Worn and dated appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom walls · Peeling paint and dated appearance.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration and wear.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and needs trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$24,500–98,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can make a significant difference in the home's appearance. ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — New cabinets and countertops can greatly enhance the kitchen's functionality and appeal. ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom walls — Fresh walls can improve the bathroom's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both Trim and maintain landscaping — A well-maintained yard can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Larkfield-Wikiup

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Larkfield-Wikiup, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 45,570
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+20.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $144,900 BAREIS
• 2022-11-08 Sold (MLS) $132,000 BAREIS
• 2022-11-04 Pending — BAREIS
• 2022-11-02 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2022-10-26 Listed $120,000 BAREIS