10419 Crandon Park Dr · Bakersfield, CA 93312

$375,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,888 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 2000 6,534 sqft lot Est $464k · 19% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the NW - home features 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, formal living & dining, family room open to kitchen and breakfast nook with sliding door to backyard. Vaulted ceiling, fans, Indoor laundry. 2 car garage; shed. Sold as is''. needs some TLC.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $375k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $357k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Rosedale Union Elementary (urban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #186 of 1,400 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: American Elementary (719 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $296,506 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.17%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $464,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10419 Crandon Park Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,888 (0%)	0mo	$375,000	$199	100
10301 Olympia Fields Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-0%)	2mo	$465,000	$247	91
10616 Iron Creek Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,955 (+4%)	2mo	$549,000	$281	81
10423 Crandon Park Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	2,081 (+10%)	3mo	$460,000	$221	80
1110 Coyote Springs Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,032 (+8%)	4mo	$519,950	$256	79
10718 Iron Creek Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,948 (+3%)	4mo	$495,000	$254	73
808 Crystal Downs Ct	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,068 (+10%)	5mo	$455,000	$220	63
10931 Shellabarger Rd	0.39mi	5/— (+1)	2,019 (+7%)	4mo	$600,000	$297	62
9727 Battersea Park Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,694 (-10%)	3mo	$416,000	$246	54
9801 Marby Grange	0.50mi	4/2.0	2,131 (+13%)	2mo	$418,000	$196	53
9503 Ravenrock Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0	1,981 (+5%)	6mo	$396,250	$200	53
9302 Southwick Dr	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,163 (+15%)	2mo	$430,000	$199	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-70,707
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-83,652
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93312

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,866/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,095

Max offer price $356,882

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $4	+0% $-103	+5% $-209	+10% $-315
Rent	-10% $-337	-5% $-220	+0% $-103	+5% $15	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $86	-0.5pp $-7	base $-103	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10416 Heather Valley Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1888	$2,800	$1.48	44d	1	0.03mi
10010 Brookline Woods Dr Bakersfield, CA	5.0	3.0	2500	$3,500	$1.40	4d	1	0.30mi
400 Gandola Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1694	$2,350	$1.39	44d	1	0.63mi
1003 Duxbury Ct Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1748	$2,500	$1.43	3d	1	0.67mi
11713 Alton Manor Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1834	$2,500	$1.36	3d	1	0.93mi
8812 Fox Creek Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1849	$2,600	$1.41	3d	1	1.08mi
314 Lewisham St Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1979	$2,750	$1.39	3d	1	1.14mi
309 Barkine Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1929	$2,700	$1.40	3d	1	1.15mi
10410 Bichester Ct Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1797	$6,500	$3.62	3d	1	1.16mi
606 Windsor Park Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	1797	$7,000	$3.90	3d	1	1.29mi
12606 Gila River Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	2080	$3,200	$1.54	11d	1	1.36mi
616 Vermillion Dr Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,450	$1.72	44d	1	1.40mi
802 Windsor Park Dr Bakersfield, CA	4.0	2.0	2213	$2,795	$1.26	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $375,000
2. 2026-05-06
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,866 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,866 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 42 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$3,866
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$7,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosedale Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633480
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $92,725
• Composite: 56.75/100
• National rank: #2410
• State rank: #186 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 499,124
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,384
• Household income: $114,195
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 964.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21% Asian 6% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.46%
• Current HPI: 325.3919
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.86%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $375,000 GEMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,866 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.