8249 E Carefree Dr · Carefree, AZ 85377

$1,199,980

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,103 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1981 0.98 ac lot $387/sqft · 7% below area Est $1286k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You must check out this Carefree gem. Ideally located and backs up to the prestigious Desert Forest Golf Club, this rare opportunity sits on an expansive 42,608 sq. ft. lot in one of the most desirable areas of Carefree, AZ. With over 3,100 sq. ft. of interior space, this home is ready for your vision and creativity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features three fireplaces—found in the family room, kitchen, and primary suite—adding warmth, charm, and architectural character throughout. The incredible lot provides privacy, natural desert beauty, and endless potential to transform the property into a true desert retreat. Whether you're looking to reimagine the interiors, redesign the flow, or create a custom luxury haven, the open slate is waiting for you. The combination of premium location, oversized lot, and world-class golf next door makes this a standout opportunity in iconic Carefree. Embrace the potential. Elevate the lifestyle. This home is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Expansive lot
• Three fireplaces
• 0.98 acre lot

Tags

• EXPANSIVE LOT
• THREE FIREPLACES
• NATURAL DESERT BEAUTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (5.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.06M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 4.0% in Carefree — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#58 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety D+, commute F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Black Mountain Elementary School (math 66% / reading 63%, grade B, #104 of 1,109 statewide, top 10%, 495 students, 8% FRL); Sonoran Trails Middle School (math 48% / reading 50%, grade C-, #31 of 218 statewide, top 14%, 761 students, 7% FRL); Cactus Shadows High School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #48 of 381 statewide, top 13%, 1,588 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools at 7% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 101 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $82k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $74k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$131k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.06M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $288k; list at $1.20M implies a 317% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,055,982 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,285,508
• List price: $1,199,980
• Delta: -6.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37760 N Concho Dr	0.18mi	3/3.0	2,853 (-8%)	2mo	$1,249,000	$438	73
8102 E Serene St	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,291 (+6%)	7mo	$1,258,000	$382	63
37636 N Round Robin Ct	0.26mi	4/4.5 (+1)	3,383 (+9%)	7mo	$1,340,000	$396	60
8529 E Carefree Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,712 (-13%)	6mo	$965,000	$356	53
37229 N Winding Wash Trl	0.72mi	3/3.0	2,952 (-5%)	1mo	$1,650,000	$559	53
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #1035	0.62mi	3/3.5	2,851 (-8%)	13mo	$3,000,000	$1,052	45
8649 E Short Putt Pl	0.48mi	3/3.0	3,347 (+8%)	19mo	$1,695,000	$506	45
7787 E Verde Vista Trl	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,910 (-6%)	7mo	$1,156,250	$397	43
8202 E Carefree Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	2,638 (-15%)	21mo	$875,000	$332	42
8015 E Serene St	0.39mi	3/4.0	2,674 (-14%)	20mo	$1,400,000	$524	42
36802 N Long Rifle Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,802 (-10%)	24mo	$1,359,250	$485	27
37002 N Long Rifle Rd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,653 (-14%)	20mo	$1,225,000	$462	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.13% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $474,537
• Equity at exit: $764,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $1,298,814
• Equity at exit: $1,394,730

Cash invested: $335,994 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85377

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,480/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,376
• Net cashflow: $1,873

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,944

Max offer price $1,199,980

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,552	-5% $2,213	+0% $1,873	+5% $165	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $979	-5% $1,426	+0% $1,873	+5% $2,320	+10% $2,767
Rate	-1.0pp $2,477	-0.5pp $2,178	base $1,873	+0.5pp $1,562	+1.0pp $1,246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $299,995
• Closing costs: $35,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36601 N Mule Train Rd Unit 12C Carefree, AZ	2.0	2.5	2100	$5,500	$2.62	45d	1	0.56mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	2726	$13,000	$4.77	0d	2	0.87mi
37200 N Cave Creek Rd #74 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3000	$14,000	$4.67	0d	1	1.01mi
3000 Ironwood Rd Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3930	$13,400	$3.41	45d	1	1.12mi
1 Easy St #30 Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	2191	$8,000	$3.65	45d	1	1.26mi
1063 N Boulder Dr Carefree, AZ	3.0	3.5	3035	$12,000	$3.95	45d	1	1.34mi
1816 Eagle Claw Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2540	$9,000	$3.54	45d	1	1.35mi
9492 E Sundance Trl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3488	$18,000	$5.16	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 206 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,199,980 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,199,980 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $1,199,980 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,228,980 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,228,980 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,228,980 Active 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,228,980 Active 191 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    price $1,228,980 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    You must check out this Carefree gem. Ideally located and backs up to the prestigious Desert Forest Golf Club, this rare opportunity sits on an expansive 42,608 sq. ft. lot in one of the most desirable areas of Carefree, AZ. With over 3,100 sq. ft. of interior space, this home is ready for your vision and creativity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features three fireplaces—found in the family room, kitchen, and primary suite—adding warmth, charm, and architectural character throughout. The incredible lot provides privacy, natural desert beauty, and endless potential to transform the property into a true desert retreat. Whether you're looking to reimagine the interiors, redesign the flow, or create a custom luxury haven, the open slate is waiting for you. The combination of premium location, oversized lot, and world-class golf next door makes this a standout opportunity in iconic Carefree. Embrace the potential. Elevate the lifestyle. This home is ready for its next chapter.

17. 2026-02-25
    price $1,248,980 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    You must check out this Carefree gem. Ideally located and backs up to the prestigious Desert Forest Golf Club, this rare opportunity sits on an expansive 42,608 sq. ft. lot in one of the most desirable areas of Carefree, AZ. With over 3,100 sq. ft. of interior space, this home is ready for your vision and creativity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features three fireplaces—found in the family room, kitchen, and primary suite—adding warmth, charm, and architectural character throughout. The incredible lot provides privacy, natural desert beauty, and endless potential to transform the property into a true desert retreat. Whether you're looking to reimagine the interiors, redesign the flow, or create a custom luxury haven, the open slate is waiting for you. The combination of premium location, oversized lot, and world-class golf next door makes this a standout opportunity in iconic Carefree. Embrace the potential. Elevate the lifestyle. This home is ready for its next chapter.

18. 2026-01-23
    price $1,298,988 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    You must check out this Carefree gem. Ideally located and backs up to the prestigious Desert Forest Golf Club, this rare opportunity sits on an expansive 42,608 sq. ft. lot in one of the most desirable areas of Carefree, AZ. With over 3,100 sq. ft. of interior space, this home is ready for your vision and creativity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features three fireplaces—found in the family room, kitchen, and primary suite—adding warmth, charm, and architectural character throughout. The incredible lot provides privacy, natural desert beauty, and endless potential to transform the property into a true desert retreat. Whether you're looking to reimagine the interiors, redesign the flow, or create a custom luxury haven, the open slate is waiting for you. The combination of premium location, oversized lot, and world-class golf next door makes this a standout opportunity in iconic Carefree. Embrace the potential. Elevate the lifestyle. This home is ready for its next chapter.

19. 2025-11-20
    listed $1,398,988 Active 1010-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1010 chars)

    You must check out this Carefree gem. Ideally located and backs up to the prestigious Desert Forest Golf Club, this rare opportunity sits on an expansive 42,608 sq. ft. lot in one of the most desirable areas of Carefree, AZ. With over 3,100 sq. ft. of interior space, this home is ready for your vision and creativity. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence features three fireplaces—found in the family room, kitchen, and primary suite—adding warmth, charm, and architectural character throughout. The incredible lot provides privacy, natural desert beauty, and endless potential to transform the property into a true desert retreat. Whether you're looking to reimagine the interiors, redesign the flow, or create a custom luxury haven, the open slate is waiting for you. The combination of premium location, oversized lot, and world-class golf next door makes this a standout opportunity in iconic Carefree. Embrace the potential. Elevate the lifestyle. This home is ready for its next chapter.

20. 1999-05-11
    soldstatus $287,500
21. 1986-06-11
    soldstatus $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,480 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,920 · $660/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,440/yr (+$453/mo · 219.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $135,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,218
• − Property taxes: −$2,480
• − Insurance: −$6,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,863
• − Management: −$10,863
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable income: $2,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $21,840/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Carefree

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #9958

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carefree, AZ
• City population: 3,452
• Population (ZIP): 3,452

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.13%
• Current HPI: 332.8138
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+514.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $1,228,980 ARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $1,248,980 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $1,298,988 ARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $1,398,988 ARMLS
• 1999-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $287,500 Public Records
• 1986-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,480 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.