11 Valley St · Northwest Harbor, NY 11937

$1,998,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,878 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Built 2004 0.49 ac lot $1064/sqft · 23% above area Est $1630k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Valley Street Sanctuary Situated on a shy half-acre in a desirable East Hampton setting, this four-bedroom, three-bath two-story residence offers privacy, comfort, and exceptional outdoor living. Light-filled interiors provide a thoughtful layout suited for both relaxed summer living and year-round enjoyment. The finished lower level features a private sauna, creating a spa-like retreat within the home. Outdoors, beautifully landscaped grounds surround a sparkling gunite in-ground heated pool and stone patio, complemented by an expansive lawn ideal for entertaining or quiet afternoons. The spacious backyard offers both openness and seclusion - a rare balance in today's market. Conveniently located near East Hampton Village, ocean beaches, dining, and shops.

Key facts

• Private sauna
• Spacious backyard
• Expansive lawn

Tags

• PRIVATE SAUNA
• GUNITE IN-GROUND HEATED POOL
• STONE PATIO
• BEAUTIFULLY LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• EXPANSIVE LAWN
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($78k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($23k rent vs $2.00M).
• Recommended offer: $1.82M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.8% in Northwest Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,007 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Hampton Union Free School District (town): math 62% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #159 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.3%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,237/mo this rent would consume 215% of the median local household income ($130k/yr) (locally 896% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $559k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.82M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $515k; list at $2.00M implies a 288% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,818,180 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.98%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,630,010
• List price: $1,998,000
• Delta: 22.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $213,309
• Equity at exit: $297,908

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $1,275,715
• Equity at exit: $172,751

Cash invested: $559,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11937

• Rents YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,478
• Tax from tax record: −$529 /mo · $6,346/yr
• Insurance: −$832
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,880
• Net cashflow: $6,518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,986

Max offer price $1,998,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,649	-5% $7,083	+0% $6,518	+5% $5,952	+10% $5,387
Rent	-10% $4,682	-5% $5,600	+0% $6,518	+5% $7,436	+10% $8,354
Rate	-1.0pp $7,524	-0.5pp $7,026	base $6,518	+0.5pp $6,000	+1.0pp $5,473

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $499,500
• Closing costs: $59,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36 Barnes Ave East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2346	$55,000	$23.44	25d	1	0.47mi
23 Wooded Oak Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1560	$25,000	$16.03	45d	1	0.55mi
202 Treescape Dr Unit 10B East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.0	2200	$50,000	$22.73	25d	1	0.77mi
15 Rivers Rd East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2400	$45,000	$18.75	45d	1	0.88mi
210 Treescape Dr East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	2400	$25,000	$10.42	45d	1	0.88mi
17 Joshua Edwards Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$40,000	$22.22	45d	1	1.06mi
3 Forest Ct East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1750	$50,000	$28.57	25d	1	1.09mi
10 Villa Ave East Hampton, NY	3.0	4.0	2200	$35,000	$15.91	25d	1	1.12mi
72 Long Ln East Hampton, NY	3.0	2.5	2000	$5,000	$2.50	20d	1	1.23mi
3 Oak Hill Ln East Hampton, NY	4.0	3.5	2000	$90,000	$45.00	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 101 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,998,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,998,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-03-03
    listed $1,998,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Valley Street Sanctuary Situated on a shy half-acre in a desirable East Hampton setting, this four-bedroom, three-bath two-story residence offers privacy, comfort, and exceptional outdoor living. Light-filled interiors provide a thoughtful layout suited for both relaxed summer living and year-round enjoyment. The finished lower level features a private sauna, creating a spa-like retreat within the home. Outdoors, beautifully landscaped grounds surround a sparkling gunite in-ground heated pool and stone patio, complemented by an expansive lawn ideal for entertaining or quiet afternoons. The spacious backyard offers both openness and seclusion - a rare balance in today's market. Conveniently located near East Hampton Village, ocean beaches, dining, and shops.

17. 2014-05-21
    soldstatus $515,000
18. 2014-04-11
    soldstatus $515,000 Closed 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

19. 2014-04-11
    soldstatus $515,000

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

20. 2014-01-15
    status Listing Extended 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

21. 2014-01-15
    historical 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

22. 2013-11-27
    price $575,000 Price Change 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

23. 2013-09-06
    listed $599,000 New 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    Move In Condition 4 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom House In A Quiet Area Of East Hampton North West. House Boasts All Amenities You Need Plus The Privacy Of The Area. Great Bargain Which Wont Last Long, So Act Fast.

24. 2013-07-14
    historical
25. 2013-01-14
    listed $575,000
26. 2013-01-14
    listed $599,000
27. 2012-12-17
    historical
28. 2012-10-04
    listed $525,000
29. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus $250,000
30. 2004-01-15
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,346 · $529/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,056 · $1,671/mo
• Expected delta: +$13,710/yr (+$1,143/mo · 216.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $278,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$111,919
• − Property taxes: −$6,346
• − Insurance: −$9,990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,307
• − Management: −$22,307
• − Depreciation: −$58,124
• Taxable income: $47,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11,483
• After-tax cash flow: $66,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Hampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609660
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $86,309
• Composite: 57.85/100
• National rank: #1046
• State rank: #159 of 590 in NY

Livability — Northwest Harbor

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1007
• US rank: #19577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harbor, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,806
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,882
• Household income: $129,883
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 896.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 23% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -285.21%
• Current HPI: 444.1499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.28%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+980.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $1,998,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-11 Sold (MLS) $515,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-11 Sold (MLS) $515,000 MLSLI
• 2014-01-15 Relisted — MLSLI
• 2014-01-15 Delisted — MLSLI
• 2013-11-27 Price Changed $575,000 MLSLI
• 2013-09-06 Listed $599,000 MLSLI
• 2013-07-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-14 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-14 Listed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-12-17 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-04 Listed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-15 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,346 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.