15181 Van Buren Blvd #99 · Woodcrest, CA 92504

$229,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Manufactured · 238 Days on market

Built 1978 Fair condition $167/sqft · 6% above area Est $217k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this high demand community of Rancho Caballero, an ALL-AGES park. Beautiful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasting 1,368 sqft of living space. Bonus room that could be used as an office or 4th bedroom or home office. Laundry room inside. Updated kitchen. Custom ironworks entry that can be used as a patio. Low maintenance garden, carport for 3 cars, storage shed. Central A/C, heat. Home has incredible views of the canyon. Enjoy tranquil setting while sitting in the back with beautiful sunsets that can only be found in this home. One of the best parks in the county. Enjoy 3 pools, one of them heated, kiddie pool, bbq grills, lounging chairs, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse with private pool to host your family and friends events. Manicured lawns and dog park. Absolute stunning views. Seller open to concessions. You could be home now. Seller motivated. Send your offer

Key facts

• Updated kitchen
• Bbq grills
• Kiddie pool

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CUSTOM IRONWORKS ENTRY
• LOW MAINTENANCE GARDEN
• HEATED POOL
• KIDDIE POOL
• BBQ GRILLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $229k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 2.2% in Woodcrest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#518 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 90 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $229k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.02%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,746
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: 5.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15181 Van Buren Blvd #22	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-1%)	1mo	$259,000	$192	92
15181 Van Buren Blvd #82	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	6mo	$253,000	$188	87
15181 Van Buren Blvd #147	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	6mo	$210,000	$156	87
15181 Van Buren Blvd #60	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	8mo	$140,000	$104	85
15181 Van Buren Blvd #18	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (0%)	13mo	$180,000	$132	84
15181 Van Buren Blvd #47	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+5%)	3mo	$260,000	$181	84
15181 Van Buren Blvd #64	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-2%)	11mo	$230,000	$171	83
15181 Van Buren Blvd #56	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+2%)	10mo	$203,000	$145	82
15181 Van Buren Blvd #114	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+10%)	0mo	$255,000	$170	79
15181 Van Buren Blvd #178	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (+10%)	4mo	$290,000	$193	76
15181 Van Buren Blvd #7	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-14%)	20mo	$219,000	$186	55
15181 Van Buren Blvd #100	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,573 (+15%)	18mo	$282,000	$179	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $40,335
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.55×
• Total profit: $163,198
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92504

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,357 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$705
• Net cashflow: $1,070

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 236 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 235 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 227 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 222 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 221 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 220 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $229,000 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Welcome to this high demand community of Rancho Caballero, an ALL-AGES park. Beautiful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasting 1,368 sqft of living space. Bonus room that could be used as an office or 4th bedroom or home office. Laundry room inside. Updated kitchen. Custom ironworks entry that can be used as a patio. Low maintenance garden, carport for 3 cars, storage shed. Central A/C, heat. Home has incredible views of the canyon. Enjoy tranquil setting while sitting in the back with beautiful sunsets that can only be found in this home. One of the best parks in the county. Enjoy 3 pools, one of them heated, kiddie pool, bbq grills, lounging chairs, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse with private pool to host your family and friends events. Manicured lawns and dog park. Absolute stunning views. Seller open to concessions. You could be home now. Seller motivated. Send your offer

16. 2026-03-16
    price $239,000 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Welcome to this high demand community of Rancho Caballero, an ALL-AGES park. Beautiful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasting 1,368 sqft of living space. Bonus room that could be used as an office or 4th bedroom or home office. Laundry room inside. Updated kitchen. Custom ironworks entry that can be used as a patio. Low maintenance garden, carport for 3 cars, storage shed. Central A/C, heat. Home has incredible views of the canyon. Enjoy tranquil setting while sitting in the back with beautiful sunsets that can only be found in this home. One of the best parks in the county. Enjoy 3 pools, one of them heated, kiddie pool, bbq grills, lounging chairs, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse with private pool to host your family and friends events. Manicured lawns and dog park. Absolute stunning views. Seller open to concessions. You could be home now. Seller motivated. Send your offer

17. 2025-10-23
    listed $249,999 Active 901-char remark

    Show marketing remark (901 chars)

    Welcome to this high demand community of Rancho Caballero, an ALL-AGES park. Beautiful updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasting 1,368 sqft of living space. Bonus room that could be used as an office or 4th bedroom or home office. Laundry room inside. Updated kitchen. Custom ironworks entry that can be used as a patio. Low maintenance garden, carport for 3 cars, storage shed. Central A/C, heat. Home has incredible views of the canyon. Enjoy tranquil setting while sitting in the back with beautiful sunsets that can only be found in this home. One of the best parks in the county. Enjoy 3 pools, one of them heated, kiddie pool, bbq grills, lounging chairs, basketball courts, tennis courts, clubhouse with private pool to host your family and friends events. Manicured lawns and dog park. Absolute stunning views. Seller open to concessions. You could be home now. Seller motivated. Send your offer

18. 2022-06-03
    soldstatus $140,000 Closed Sale 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Beautiful mobile home park with views, 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom well maintained home, extra Wide parking driveway, Rancho Caballero all Age Park is like a private retreat with rolling hills and trees everywhere. Large clubhouse with all amenities including kitchen, lounge area, pool room, and patios. Clubhouse includes Olympic Size Pool, Kids Pool, Barbecue Area and ample parking. Pool area next to clubhouse has heated Pool and Spa with lounge area and shower. Park also has tennis, pickleball, Outdoor Shuffleboard, basketball hoop, ball field and separate workout building, and Dog Park.

19. 2022-04-28
    status Pending Sale 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Beautiful mobile home park with views, 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom well maintained home, extra Wide parking driveway, Rancho Caballero all Age Park is like a private retreat with rolling hills and trees everywhere. Large clubhouse with all amenities including kitchen, lounge area, pool room, and patios. Clubhouse includes Olympic Size Pool, Kids Pool, Barbecue Area and ample parking. Pool area next to clubhouse has heated Pool and Spa with lounge area and shower. Park also has tennis, pickleball, Outdoor Shuffleboard, basketball hoop, ball field and separate workout building, and Dog Park.

20. 2022-03-12
    status Active Under Contract 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Beautiful mobile home park with views, 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom well maintained home, extra Wide parking driveway, Rancho Caballero all Age Park is like a private retreat with rolling hills and trees everywhere. Large clubhouse with all amenities including kitchen, lounge area, pool room, and patios. Clubhouse includes Olympic Size Pool, Kids Pool, Barbecue Area and ample parking. Pool area next to clubhouse has heated Pool and Spa with lounge area and shower. Park also has tennis, pickleball, Outdoor Shuffleboard, basketball hoop, ball field and separate workout building, and Dog Park.

21. 2022-03-09
    listed $139,000 Active 593-char remark

    Show marketing remark (593 chars)

    Beautiful mobile home park with views, 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom well maintained home, extra Wide parking driveway, Rancho Caballero all Age Park is like a private retreat with rolling hills and trees everywhere. Large clubhouse with all amenities including kitchen, lounge area, pool room, and patios. Clubhouse includes Olympic Size Pool, Kids Pool, Barbecue Area and ample parking. Pool area next to clubhouse has heated Pool and Spa with lounge area and shower. Park also has tennis, pickleball, Outdoor Shuffleboard, basketball hoop, ball field and separate workout building, and Dog Park.

22. 2014-07-08
    historical Hold
23. 2014-07-01
    status Active
24. 2014-05-31
    historical Hold
25. 2014-05-31
    status Active
26. 2014-04-17
    historical Hold
27. 2014-03-09
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,223
• − Management: −$3,223
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable income: $9,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,345
• After-tax cash flow: $10,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home park property offers a moderate level of renovation with average condition. It has a functional kitchen and bathrooms, and a central A/C and heat system. The property could benefit from some landscaping and painting to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor landscaping — cacti need trimming
• Minor landscaping — low maintenance garden could benefit from some landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Rental landscaping — improved landscaping attracts tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
landscaping · cacti need trimming	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · low maintenance garden could benefit from some landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental landscaping — improved landscaping attracts tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Woodcrest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #518
• US rank: #17500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Woodcrest, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,132
• Household income: $92,477
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1669.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 28% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -457.73%
• Current HPI: 414.1936
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.67%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+358.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $229,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $239,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $249,999 CRMLS
• 2022-06-03 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CRMLS
• 2022-04-28 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-03-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-03-09 Listed $139,000 CRMLS
• 2014-07-08 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2014-07-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-05-31 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2014-05-31 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2014-04-17 Delisted — CRMLS
• 2014-03-09 Listed $49,900 CRMLS