528 Elmwood Ln · Richmond, MI 48063

$64,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 31 Days on market

Built 2018 5,000 sqft lot $640/mo HOA · 47% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to Pinewood on the Lake! This 4-bedroom home is move in ready! Seller will be leaving all the appliances including the washer and dryer. With a split ranch this is perfect for a large family. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet with its on personal master bath. Nice open concept with the living room. kitchen and dining room, which is great for entertaining. Kitchen has an ample of cabinets along with an island. Manufactured home sits on a nice size lot with two parking pads and garden in the back. With door access on the side of home and back of home, makes it convenient to get to garden/vehicle. Make an appointment, you won't be disappointed. Park has a playground picnic area, basketball court, grass rec area and walking trails. Lot rent is $640.50/mo. includes water and trash. MI does have a 6% transfer tax fee that will need to be paid at closing by purchaser.

Key facts

• Ample cabinets
• Open concept
• Parking pads

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• SPLIT RANCH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT
• AMPLE CABINETS
• PARKING PADS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 100; Paved road access; Subdivision: Pinewood on the Lake; Water body name: Pinewood on Lake; Directions available to Pinewood on the Lake Manufactured Park
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Association fee is $640.50 per month; HOA covers maintenance of grounds, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking pad; Assigned parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Ground-level entry with steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Built with vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Basketball court; Exterior lighting; Deck; Shed(s); Lake privileges

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-274/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $62k (5.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.8% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#385 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• East China School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #208 of 540 in MI (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 232 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $61,601 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-11,555
• Equity at exit: $9,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-10,251
• Equity at exit: $5,611

Cash invested: $18,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48063

• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,349 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$340
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$640
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,378

Max offer price $61,601

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $0	+0% $-23	+5% $-45	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-76	+0% $-23	+5% $30	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-6	base $-23	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-57

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,225
• Closing costs: $1,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 Redwood Ave Columbus, MI	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,349	$1.47	0d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $640 · $7,680/yr
• Likely covers: watertrash

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,900 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,900 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $64,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $64,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $64,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $64,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $64,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $64,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $64,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $64,900 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $64,900 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $64,900 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $64,900 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $64,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Welcome home to Pinewood on the Lake! This 4-bedroom home is move in ready! Seller will be leaving all the appliances including the washer and dryer. With a split ranch this is perfect for a large family. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet with its on personal master bath. Nice open concept with the living room. kitchen and dining room, which is great for entertaining. Kitchen has an ample of cabinets along with an island. Manufactured home sits on a nice size lot with two parking pads and garden in the back. With door access on the side of home and back of home, makes it convenient to get to garden/vehicle. Make an appointment, you won't be disappointed. Park has a playground picnic area, basketball court, grass rec area and walking trails. Lot rent is $640.50/mo. includes water and trash. MI does have a 6% transfer tax fee that will need to be paid at closing by purchaser.

19. 2026-05-21
    listed $64,900 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Welcome home to Pinewood on the Lake! This 4-bedroom home is move in ready! Seller will be leaving all the appliances including the washer and dryer. With a split ranch this is perfect for a large family. Master bedroom has a large walk-in closet with its on personal master bath. Nice open concept with the living room. kitchen and dining room, which is great for entertaining. Kitchen has an ample of cabinets along with an island. Manufactured home sits on a nice size lot with two parking pads and garden in the back. With door access on the side of home and back of home, makes it convenient to get to garden/vehicle. Make an appointment, you won't be disappointed. Park has a playground picnic area, basketball court, grass rec area and walking trails. Lot rent is $640.50/mo. includes water and trash. MI does have a 6% transfer tax fee that will need to be paid at closing by purchaser.

20. 2026-05-01
    historical
21. 2026-05-01
    historical
22. 2025-10-24
    listed $69,900 Active
23. 2025-10-24
    listed $69,900 Active
24. 2025-03-01
    historical
25. 2025-03-01
    historical
26. 2025-02-28
    historical
27. 2025-01-31
    price $69,900
28. 2025-01-30
    price $69,900
29. 2024-09-05
    listed $74,900 Active
30. 2024-08-29
    listed $74,900 Active
31. 2024-08-29
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,188
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,635
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,295
• − Management: −$1,295
• − HOA: −$7,680
• − Depreciation: −$1,888
• Taxable loss: −$903
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$217
• After-tax cash flow: $-57/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East China School District
• NCES district ID: 2612420
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $56,455
• Composite: 34.23/100
• National rank: #5260
• State rank: #208 of 540 in MI

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #10232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,106

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 154,587 people
• By 2030: 150,031 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 138,177 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 124,390 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 95,825 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 68,672 · -55.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.6) · D 32.0% · R 66.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.6 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+7.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -149.87%
• Current HPI: 153.779
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listed $64,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-24 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-03-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2025-02-28 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-01-30 Price Changed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-09-05 Listed $74,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-08-29 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-08-29 Listed $74,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS