121 Napier Ave · Warner Robins, GA 31093

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1961 0.33 ac lot Est $250k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If space is what you're looking for, you have found it! With 4 bedrooms and 2 other rooms that could be used for a playroom, office, man cave, or storage, you are sure to have enough room to spread out. All brick outbuilding & a partial basement completes this great package!

Key facts

• Designer tile
• Tiled backsplash
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED INTERIOR
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• DESIGNER TILE
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• TILED BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Covered, screened porch; Fenced yard; Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($962/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 19% / reading 14%, grade F, #968 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 556 students, 84% FRL); Northside Middle School (math 29% / reading 31%, grade F, #243 of 470 statewide, top 53%, 844 students, 84% FRL); Northside High School (math 5% / reading 21%, grade F, #331 of 424 statewide, top 78%, 1,959 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,746/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1516% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,581 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.64%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,228
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
501 Pinecrest Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,818 (-12%)	6mo	$145,000	$80	45
306 Juniper Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,814 (-12%)	13mo	$220,000	$121	44
231 Sentry Oaks Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,214 (+7%)	23mo	$248,000	$112	43
410 Sentry Oaks Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,926 (-7%)	23mo	$239,900	$125	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,210
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-20,693
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31093

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $198	-5% $139	+0% $80	+5% $21	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $11	+0% $80	+5% $149	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $133	base $80	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Hawthorne Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,500	$0.97	45d	1	0.48mi
135 Sussex Dr Warner Robins, GA	2.0	2.0	2047	$1,495	$0.73	45d	1	0.53mi
501 Pinecrest Dr Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.54mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	22d	1	0.56mi
111 Rainbow Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,695	$1.19	45d	1	0.56mi
203 Lumpkin Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	3.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	45d	1	0.62mi
208 Wray St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,700	$1.13	15d	1	0.67mi
103 Abney Ct Centerville, GA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	22d	1	0.93mi
124 Carterwoods Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1818	$1,811	$1.00	22d	1	1.07mi
211 Laverne Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,395	$0.97	15d	1	1.29mi
122 Rolling Woods Cir Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,750	$0.91	22d	1	1.50mi
122 Rolling Woods Cir Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.5	1920	$1,750	$0.91	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $209,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-05-30
   listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,950
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$630
• After-tax cash flow: $1,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 26,872
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 47.1% rent · 52.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.35%
• Current HPI: 222.1627
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+199.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $209,000 CGMLS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CGMLS
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) $140,000 GAMLS
• 2021-08-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $129,900 CGMLS
• 2021-07-28 Listed $129,900 GAMLS
• 2006-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $77,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 2000-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $69,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.