6616 Us Route 9 · Stottville, NY 12534

$309,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1890 0.41 ac lot Est $569k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Owners Anxious. .. Easy to Show. .. lock box. Bring buyers. .. Spacious home for big family with large rear yard for play or garden. Close to shopping center and easy on/off commute to main roads. New Furnace installed 12/15. New baseboard heaters, new floor in laundry room and tile in hall way.

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Ample storage
• 0.41 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• AMPLE STORAGE
• EXTENSIVELY LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,070 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,955/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $87k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $103k; list at $310k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $272,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.21%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $568,800
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6 Joslen Heights Rd	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (-13%)	13mo	$460,000	$221	44
15 Joslen Heights Rd	0.34mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,672 (+11%)	18mo	$632,500	$237	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $198,964
• Equity at exit: $278,822

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $613,030
• Equity at exit: $601,290

Cash invested: $86,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12534

• Home prices YoY: 5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,955 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,623
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,203/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $309,500

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $407	-5% $319	+0% $232	+5% $144	+10% $57
Rent	-10% $-2	-5% $115	+0% $232	+5% $349	+10% $465
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $311	base $232	+0.5pp $152	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,375
• Closing costs: $9,285
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-26
   price $309,500
3. 2026-01-08
   price $319,500
4. 2025-11-21
   listed $334,900 Active
5. 2016-10-21
   soldstatus $103,000
6. 2016-10-20
   soldstatus $103,000 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Owners Anxious. .. Easy to Show. .. lock box. Bring buyers. .. Spacious home for big family with large rear yard for play or garden. Close to shopping center and easy on/off commute to main roads. New Furnace installed 12/15. New baseboard heaters, new floor in laundry room and tile in hall way.

7. 2015-08-20
   listed $106,000 297-char remark

   Show marketing remark (297 chars)

   Owners Anxious. .. Easy to Show. .. lock box. Bring buyers. .. Spacious home for big family with large rear yard for play or garden. Close to shopping center and easy on/off commute to main roads. New Furnace installed 12/15. New baseboard heaters, new floor in laundry room and tile in hall way.

8. 2003-12-03
   soldstatus $84,000
9. 1993-11-15
   soldstatus $25,000
10. 1993-01-28
    soldstatus $92,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,203 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,717 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,337
• − Property taxes: −$4,203
• − Insurance: −$1,548
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,836
• − Management: −$2,836
• − Depreciation: −$9,004
• Taxable loss: −$2,309
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $3,336/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hudson City School District
• NCES district ID: 3614940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,663
• Composite: 36.03/100
• National rank: #4779
• State rank: #494 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stottville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1070
• US rank: #21454

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stottville, NY
• County: Columbia County · 17,176 people
• City population: 184
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,176
• Household income: $72,741
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1083.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,662 people
• By 2030: 56,557 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 51,324 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 45,790 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 35,232 · -39.9%
• By 2100: 25,846 · -55.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: D (+14.7) · D 57.4% · R 42.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.3pp toward D · 2008: 13.4pp · 2024: 14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+14.7 2020: D+16.7 2016: D+1.4 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 490.0412
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Hudson, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+236.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $309,500 Global MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $319,500 Global MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $334,900 Global MLS
• 2016-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) $103,000 HVCRMLS
• 2015-08-20 Listed $106,000 HVCRMLS
• 2003-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,203 · -20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.