305 Water Ave S · St. Hilaire, MN 56754

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,479 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 1948 2.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nicely rejuvenated home located on 2.6 acres on the river in St. Hilaire. The family room has been used as a bedroom but can easily become a family room again. There are two other bedrooms plus a nice sized living room. Call for your showing today as you don't find homes like this on the river very often.

Key facts

• On the river
• 2.6 acres
• 2.6 acre lot

Tags

• 2.6 ACRES
• ON THE RIVER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 2.6 acres; Private and public maintained road access

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking; 3-car detached garage
• Utilities: Drilled private water well; Mound septic system; Electric service with circuit breakers; Fuel: Electric and propane
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Block and wood foundation; Built with vinyl exterior
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Riverfront property (no road between home and water); Chicken coop/barn on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-646/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $136,549 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.32%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $17,614
• Equity at exit: $78,643

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $67,502
• Equity at exit: $121,198

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56754

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,434

Max offer price $165,390

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-4	+0% $-54	+5% $-103	+10% $-153
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-108	+0% $-54	+5% $0	+10% $54
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $-9	base $-54	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $174,900 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $174,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$124/yr (+$10/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,311
• − Management: −$1,311
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$3,705
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$889
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thief River Falls School District
• NCES district ID: 2738850
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,239
• Composite: 36.88/100
• National rank: #4547
• State rank: #201 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Hilaire

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Hilaire, MN
• Population (ZIP): 495

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,800 people
• By 2030: 15,030 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 15,402 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 15,601 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 15,659 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 14,231 · -3.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 27% Lithuanian 16% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,710 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.