2809 Alkay Dr · Shreveport, LA 71118

$167,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,245 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1964 9,365 sqft lot Est $138k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

THIS IS THE HOUSE YOU’VE BEEN WAITING FOR!!!!! The perfect place to call home, you’ll think you’re in a new home!!!!New roof, new paint, new flooring, new appliances, new HVAC, new luxury plank vinyl flooring, new granite with stainless under mount chef’s sink and under cabinet lighting, all new doors and hardware inside and out, all new light fixtures, new 2 inch blinds throughout. This home is beautiful!!! Large fenced back yard, 12x25 storage building with electricity & 220, beautiful covered deck with access to permanent gas grill. I’m serious, this is it!!!! For this price point, you better move quick!! Convenient to Bert Kouns industrial Loop, I 4

Key facts

• New granite
• New hvac
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW HVAC
• NEW GRANITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Mccrarys Southern Hills; County: Caddo; Country: United States; Directions: GPS
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Individual gas meter
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2011; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Asphalt driveway/streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas cooktop
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; 2 total rooms (listed)
• Laundry & utility: Individual gas meter

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($578/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Summer Grove Elementary School (math 7% / reading 12%, grade F, #612 of 646 statewide, top 95%, 529 students, 86% FRL); Caddo Parish Middle Magnet School (math 79% / reading 93%, grade A+, #1 of 218 statewide, top 0%, 1,003 students, 23% FRL); Southwood High School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #151 of 265 statewide, top 57%, 1,308 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 26% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Caddo Parish average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 116 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,352 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,195
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9025 Lone Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,185 (-5%)	2mo	$95,000	$80	81
9028 Lone Oak Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,151 (-8%)	2mo	$78,500	$68	75
2849 Smithfield Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,265 (+2%)	7mo	$140,000	$111	71
9035 Lone Oak Dr	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,106 (-11%)	2mo	$146,000	$132	71
9001 Bayonne Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,115 (-10%)	3mo	$155,000	$139	67
9044 Marva Dr	0.35mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,185 (-5%)	6mo	$65,000	$55	66
8879 Bernay Dr	0.47mi	3/1.5	1,147 (-8%)	3mo	$167,500	$146	62
2609 Lyles Ln	0.63mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,253 (+1%)	1mo	$165,000	$132	62
8948 Hilton Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-8%)	1mo	$125,900	$110	60
9039 Sara Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,413 (+14%)	7mo	$154,950	$110	58
9014 Hilton Dr	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-11%)	2mo	$154,000	$138	58
8932 Torento Ln	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,110 (-11%)	4mo	$64,000	$58	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,853
• Equity at exit: $24,975

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,686
• Equity at exit: $14,482

Cash invested: $46,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71118

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,159/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $167,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $96	+0% $48	+5% $1	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $-6	+0% $48	+5% $103	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $91	base $48	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,875
• Closing costs: $5,025
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2843 Kaylin Dr Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.10mi
2832 Holiday Ln Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,250	$1.13	15d	1	0.26mi
9063 Marva Dr Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.5	1052	$1,375	$1.31	45d	1	0.31mi
2838 Smithfield Rd Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	960	$1,250	$1.30	45d	1	0.33mi
3011 Mackey Ln Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.5	1222	$1,300	$1.06	15d	1	0.35mi
9137 Mansfield Rd Shreveport, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,700	$1.67	15d	3	0.48mi
3024 Karla Cir Unit 3024 Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	971	$1,175	$1.21	45d	1	0.49mi
8860 Bernay Dr Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,300	$1.08	45d	1	0.51mi
9005 Walker Rd Shreveport, LA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,332	$1.37	15d	5	0.52mi
9100 Walker Rd Shreveport, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,164	$1.38	15d	9	0.70mi
3126 W Bert Kouns Industrial Loop Shreveport, LA	2.0	2.0	957	$820	$0.86	15d	1	0.84mi
9295 Savanna Dr Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.0	1297	$1,250	$0.96	23d	1	0.84mi
2045 Bert Kouns Industrial Loop Shreveport, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,320	$1.31	45d	11	1.00mi
9730 Baird Rd Shreveport, LA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,212	$1.39	15d	19	1.13mi
1029 Bert Kouns Industrial Loop Shreveport, LA	3.0	1.5	1134	$1,500	$1.32	45d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $167,500 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $167,500 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $167,500 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $167,500 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 665-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $167,500 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,159 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,159 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,383
• − Property taxes: −$1,159
• − Insurance: −$838
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$4,873
• Taxable loss: −$2,306
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$553
• After-tax cash flow: $1,132/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shreveport, LA
• County: Caddo Parish · 178,536 people
• City population: 164,123
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• Population (ZIP): 23,219
• Household income: $50,287
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1046.0

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 33% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.81%
• Current HPI: 129.1782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.74%
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $167,500 NTREIS
• 1999-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,159 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.