34808 Birch · Lenwood, CA 92311

$196,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1957 0.26 ac lot $186/sqft · 11% below area Est $219k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 34808 Birch Road, a nice home located in a quiet neighborhood, offering tranquility and convenience. With a little TLC and know-how, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath house could be a perfect starter home. Featuring a large back yard, this property is ready for your personal touches. Ideal for a first-time home buyer looking to build equity or an investor. Act fast to secure this opportunity!

Key facts

• Large back yard
• 0.26 acre lot
• Built 1957

Tags

• LARGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-97/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,118 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Barstow Unified (town): math 11% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #482 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lenwood Elementary (math 7% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,544 of 1,571 statewide, top 98%, 505 students, 84% FRL); Barstow Junior High (math 4% / reading 13%, grade F, #495 of 498 statewide, top 100%, 742 students, 80% FRL); Barstow High (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,584 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,703 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.18%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,275
• List price: $196,000
• Delta: -10.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34915 Cedar Rd	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	10mo	$100,000	$99	70
25623 Anderson Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	3mo	$270,000	$260	69
25466 Jasper	0.15mi	3/1.5	922 (-13%)	3mo	$220,000	$239	67
25587 Jade Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-4%)	5mo	$235,000	$233	66
25526 Jade Rd	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+7%)	3mo	$150,000	$133	64
25488 Jade	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-4%)	3mo	$187,000	$186	63
25298 Jade	0.48mi	3/1.0	950 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$211	59
35208 Walnut St	0.55mi	3/2.0	990 (-6%)	4mo	$210,000	$212	56
35341 Western Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,049 (-1%)	8mo	$220,000	$210	56
25068 Camino Del Norte	0.47mi	3/1.0	954 (-10%)	10mo	$210,000	$220	53
25244 Jade Rd	0.51mi	3/1.0	950 (-10%)	10mo	$215,000	$226	51
35216 Maple St	0.54mi	3/1.0	950 (-10%)	10mo	$50,000	$53	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-33,404
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-34,317
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92311

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,681/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,687

Max offer price $194,568

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $103	-5% $47	+0% $-8	+5% $-64	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-141	-5% $-74	+0% $-8	+5% $58	+10% $124
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $42	base $-8	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35205 Birch Rd Barstow, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.49mi
3325 Jasper Rd Barstow, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,460	$1.59	0d	4	0.51mi
25670 Ash Rd Barstow, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,200	$1.77	12d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $196,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $196,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $196,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $196,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $206,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome to 34808 Birch Road, a nice home located in a quiet neighborhood, offering tranquility and convenience. With a little TLC and know-how, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath house could be a perfect starter home. Featuring a large back yard, this property is ready for your personal touches. Ideal for a first-time home buyer looking to build equity or an investor. Act fast to secure this opportunity!

17. 2026-03-06
    price $215,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome to 34808 Birch Road, a nice home located in a quiet neighborhood, offering tranquility and convenience. With a little TLC and know-how, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath house could be a perfect starter home. Featuring a large back yard, this property is ready for your personal touches. Ideal for a first-time home buyer looking to build equity or an investor. Act fast to secure this opportunity!

18. 2026-02-17
    listed $200,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    Welcome to 34808 Birch Road, a nice home located in a quiet neighborhood, offering tranquility and convenience. With a little TLC and know-how, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath house could be a perfect starter home. Featuring a large back yard, this property is ready for your personal touches. Ideal for a first-time home buyer looking to build equity or an investor. Act fast to secure this opportunity!

19. 2022-05-05
    soldstatus $220,000
20. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed Sale 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Proud of Ownership!!! Front entrance features a very original design. This 1056 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 1.0 bathrooms

21. 2022-03-21
    status Pending Sale 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Proud of Ownership!!! Front entrance features a very original design. This 1056 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 1.0 bathrooms

22. 2022-02-28
    listed $220,000 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    Proud of Ownership!!! Front entrance features a very original design. This 1056 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 1.0 bathrooms

23. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $50,000 Closed
24. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $50,000
25. 2014-03-25
    status Backup Offers Accepted
26. 2014-03-11
    price $53,200
27. 2014-02-21
    price $53,300
28. 2014-02-20
    price $53,400
29. 2014-02-19
    price $53,500
30. 2014-02-18
    price $53,700
31. 2014-02-17
    price $53,800
32. 2014-02-15
    price $54,000
33. 2014-02-14
    price $54,100
34. 2014-02-13
    price $54,200
35. 2014-02-12
    price $54,300
36. 2014-02-07
    price $54,400
37. 2013-12-09
    price $54,500
38. 2013-11-25
    status Active
39. 2013-10-25
    status Backup Offers Accepted
40. 2013-10-05
    price $54,700
41. 2013-10-02
    price $56,800
42. 2013-09-07
    price $57,400
43. 2013-08-31
    price $58,600
44. 2013-08-08
    listed $59,900 Active
45. 1990-03-27
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,681 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$2,681
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$3,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barstow Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604020
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,505
• Composite: 14.44/100
• National rank: #9430
• State rank: #482 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lenwood

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1118
• US rank: #25618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lenwood, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,954
• Household income: $61,862
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 22% Black 15% Native American 3% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.26%
• Current HPI: 316.4858
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.32%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+296.2% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $206,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 2022-05-05 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-11 Sold (MLS) $220,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-21 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-02-28 Listed $220,000 CRMLS
• 2014-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-01 Sold (MLS) $50,000 CRMLS
• 2014-03-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2014-03-11 Price Changed $53,200 CRMLS
• 2014-02-21 Price Changed $53,300 CRMLS
• 2014-02-20 Price Changed $53,400 CRMLS
• 2014-02-19 Price Changed $53,500 CRMLS
• 2014-02-18 Price Changed $53,700 CRMLS
• 2014-02-17 Price Changed $53,800 CRMLS
• 2014-02-15 Price Changed $54,000 CRMLS
• 2014-02-14 Price Changed $54,100 CRMLS
• 2014-02-13 Price Changed $54,200 CRMLS
• 2014-02-12 Price Changed $54,300 CRMLS
• 2014-02-07 Price Changed $54,400 CRMLS
• 2013-12-09 Price Changed $54,500 CRMLS
• 2013-11-25 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2013-10-25 Pending — CRMLS
• 2013-10-05 Price Changed $54,700 CRMLS
• 2013-10-02 Price Changed $56,800 CRMLS
• 2013-09-07 Price Changed $57,400 CRMLS
• 2013-08-31 Price Changed $58,600 CRMLS
• 2013-08-08 Listed $59,900 CRMLS
• 1990-03-27 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,681 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.