5315 Gayla Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 979 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1981 9,796 sqft lot Est $158k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2-bath home in an established Baytown neighborhood with strong rental and resale demand. Property has significant foundation issues and will need full repairs; seller has a foundation bid available. Being sold AS-IS and seller will make no repairs. Great floor plan, good-sized bedrooms and a fenced yard offer solid potential once work is completed. Convenient access to I-10, schools, shopping and employment centers.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Remodeled bathroom
• Tiled floors

Tags

• TILED FLOORS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 1981; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven and gas range; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15 x 12); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (each approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Quartz countertops; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,033 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,619
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5210 Shirley St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,004 (+3%)	1mo	$185,000	$184	80
5212 Willowview Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	979 (0%)	18mo	$74,900	$77	78
5317 Crestmont St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,013 (+4%)	10mo	$178,900	$177	63
5408 Lillian St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,084 (+11%)	5mo	$110,000	$101	62
5400 Linda Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,122 (+15%)	11mo	$177,999	$159	55
5105 Deborah Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,122 (+15%)	13mo	$210,000	$187	54
5407 Shirley St	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,110 (+13%)	10mo	$179,000	$161	52
5406 Louise St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (+14%)	9mo	$165,000	$147	51
5408 Louise St	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+9%)	20mo	$179,900	$169	51
5411 Hazel St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+14%)	14mo	$150,118	$134	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-52,973
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -42.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-80,250
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$311 /mo · $3,730/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $134,033

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 W Baker Rd Unit 901 Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,185	$1.11	43d	1	0.94mi
3400 Shady Hill Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,012	$1.99	1d	21	0.99mi
2898 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,216	$1.36	43d	1	1.11mi
2806 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	724	$1,000	$1.38	43d	1	1.14mi
2800 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	988	$1,455	$1.47	4d	28	1.15mi
2200 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,664	$1.93	1d	13	1.29mi
2257 W Baker Rd Baytown, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,525	$1.51	43d	1	1.41mi
3300 Rollingbrook Dr Baytown, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,415	$1.73	1d	16	1.42mi
7515 Bayway Dr Baytown, TX	1.0	1.0	650	$795	$1.22	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 164-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $189,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,730 · $311/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,730 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$3,730
• − Insurance: −$1,747
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$7,144
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,714
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+644.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $90,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-11-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-08-24 Listed $25,500 HARMLS
• 2005-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,730 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.